While the MLB odds don’t like the San Diego Padres' chances to chase down and catch the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, it doesn’t mean the Friars aren’t going for it this season.
Dodgers vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-105 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers may lead the National League West by 5.5 games, but the San Diego Padres will be a problem.
The Padres are 6-3 straight up against the Dodgers this season, including taking Game 1 of this series last night by a score of 6-5. It can also be argued the Padres have a more balanced lineup and a stronger pitching staff, particularly when it comes to the bullpen after their latest trade deadline moves.
Los Angeles also remains a very top-heavy lineup that has been dinged by injuries. Mookie Betts remains on the IL with a fractured left hand, and Clayton Kershaw is making just his second start of the season tonight.
Kershaw's first outing of 2024 lasted just four innings, where he gave up two runs on six hits in four innings. That could mean plenty of work for a Dodgers bullpen that ranks 22nd in xFIP.
Kershaw and Co. will have to deal with the balanced lineup that has been powered by Xander Bogaerts. The veteran infielder has played in 12 games after missing nearly two months with a shoulder fracture, and it looks like he hasn’t skipped a beat. The four-time All-Star is hitting .469 with a 1.123 OPS, including five extra-base hits, five RBI, and seven runs scored over that stretch.
Bogaerts' hits + runs + RBI prop is on the board at 1.5, with the Over sitting near even money. He’s eclipsed this number in 10 of his last 12 games, and I like the star shortstop to get the job done again tonight.
Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Over 7
Shohei Ohtani is having a ridiculous season at the dish, hitting .311 with a 1.034 OPS, 32 home runs, and 76 runs batted in as the NL MVP odds favorite.
The Japanese phenom has topped 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in 10 of his last 14 games, and he's also 3-for-11 with two home runs in his career vs. Padres starter Dylan Cease.
With all that considered, I’m betting there will be some runs scored in this matchup. The O/U being set at 7.0 looks a little low, so let’s add the Over in what should be a high-scoring affair at Petco Park.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Dodgers vs Padres live odds
Dodgers vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-200) | San Diego -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +100 | San Diego -120
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Dodgers vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Padres opened this NL West matchup at -120 and have moved to the -135 range as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Cease is coming off a no-hitter and hasn't allowed a run over his last 22 innings, while Kershaw continues to look to shake off the injury rust.
- The total hit the board at 7.5 but has been bet down to 7.0.
Dodgers vs Padres trend
The Padres have hit the game total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.55 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres
Dodgers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-31-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet-LA, SDPA |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 4.50 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (10-8, 3.50 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries
Dodgers vs Padres weather
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