Two of the National League's best will square off in a two-game series starting Tuesday night when the San Francisco Giants (14-8, 5th in the National League) pay a visit to the Los Angeles Dodgers (14-7, 2nd in the National League).
Both teams have been struggling as of late, with the Giants losing three of their last four and the Dodgers losing three of their last five. Which NL West team will right the ship on Tuesday?
Continue reading for free MLB picks and predictions for the Giants vs. Dodgers matchup on Tuesday, May 3rd.
Giants vs Dodgers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened as -140 favorites and have largely stayed at that number across the board. The total opened at a notably-low 6.5 but has since moved to 7.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Giants vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 5/3/2022 at 2:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Tuesday, May 3, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Giants vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Carlos Rodon (3-0, 1.17 ERA): Rodon has had one of the best starts to 2022, pitching to a perfect 3-0 record in four starts with his lone no-decision coming in his opening start — in which he allowed just one run and struck out 12. He currently leads the league with 14 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
Julio Urias (1-1, 2.50 ERA): Urias is also having a solid start to 2022 and has put up three solid starts since managing just a two-inning appearance in which he allowed three runs in his first start of the season. Urias led the MLB in wins last year and put up an insane 20-3 record.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Giants: Joc Pederson OF (Questionable), Austin Slater OF (Questionable), LaMonte Wade Jr OF (Out), Trevor Hildenberger RP (Questionable).
Dodgers: Blake Treinen RP (Out), Victor Gonzalez RP (Out), Mitch White RP (Out), David Price RP (Out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Dodgers have the second-friendliest Unders record in the league at 14-6-1 (70%). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers
Giants vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Following worrisome campaigns in 2019 and 2020, Carlos Rodon seemingly broke through out of nowhere last year with career-best marks in wins (13), ERA (2.37), WHIP (0.957), and strikeouts per nine innings (12.6) — all by noticeably large margins. As a result, Rodon picked up his first All-Star nod and finished fifth in American League Cy Young voting.
Most importantly to Rodon, however, was him cashing in on a new two-year $44 million contract with the San Francisco Giants this offseason, a contract he would have never sniffed had his previous trajectory continued. He has thus far been an excellent return on that investment, pitching to a 3-0 record and a pristine 1.17 ERA, while piling up Ks at an even better rate than last year's career mark. He’s yet to have an outing where he didn't strike out at least eight batters.
On Tuesday he will be tasked with going up against a Dodgers lineup that averages 4.86 runs per game, the second-best mark in all of baseball. Rodon has seen these hitters in a limited capacity (40 combined plate appearances) but has pitched to a more than respectable .211 batting average and .316 slugging percentage. But despite his strikeout proficiency dating back to last year, he has only managed a 15.1% strikeout rate against this group.
However, when digging deeper into the numbers, these Dodgers have actually fared much worse. Hanser Alberto, who has played in just eight games for the Dodgers this year, is the only Dodger to have more than two hits against Rodon. Assuming Alberto doesn't crack the starting lineup, the likes of Mookie Betts (1-for-11), Justin Turner (1-for-5), Austin Barnes (0-for-5), and others have more or less failed to get to Rodon.
But the Dodgers have their own breakout star taking the mound on Tuesday night with Julio Urias. The 25-year-old has always been a great arm (3.07 career ERA), but Urias rarely got the opportunity to show his true potential as a starter, given that the Dodgers mostly had him pitch out of the bullpen until 2020.
But it was last year, much like Rodon, when Urias finally broke through. He racked up a 20-3 record, accumulating eight more wins in that single season than he had in his entire career up to that point. He had a 2.96 ERA and 1.018 WHIP, striking out 195 batters over 185.2 innings pitched.
Seeing as Urias has always been a Dodger, he has racked up a much larger sample against opposing NL West batters. Over the 125 plate appearances against current Giants batters, Urias has allowed a respectable .246 batting average and .347 slugging percentage. Those marks are notably higher than Rodon's, but it is also across a larger and more dependable sample.
Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-135 at WynnBet)
Over/Under analysis
Despite the Giants and Dodgers averaging the highest and second-highest runs per game on offense, both teams still have not played to the Over. The Giants are 11-10-1 to the Under (52.4%) while the Dodgers have the second-friendliest Under record in the league at 14-6-1 (70%).
Looking at external factors, the wind will blow out at a weak 3 MPH during the game and the temperature and humidity are nothing to make note of.
Following two games over the weekend against the Nationals in which the Giants allowed 14 and 11 runs, it stands to reason that manager Gabe Kepler will look to reel in the pitching performances on his team's end.
And while the Dodgers will be without their stud closer Blake Treinen, their bullpen still manages a league-best .184 batting average allowed and 0.87 WHIP. It also manages to strikeout batters at the fourth-highest rate in the league at 28.9%.
Prediction: Under 7.0 (-102 at FanDuel)
Best bet
To that point about bullpens, the Giants bullpen does not stack up as well as Los Angeles'. It's not bad by any means, but its .214 batting average allowed ranks 12th and their 1.12 WHIP ranks ninth to the Dodgers' league-best marks in both. Therefore, it stands to reason that even if the Giants get to Urias before the Dodgers can manage to get to Rodon, the Dodgers are far more equipped to hold the line.
And while Rodon is certainly better than Urias at generating whiffs, that gap is closed by the fact that the Giants rank 13th in strikeout percentage to the Dodgers' 21st, and that edge is essentially wiped out.
And while the Giants may average more runs, the Dodgers being better offensively is largely the picture that’s painted when zooming out. They rank ahead of them in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, HardHit%, and many other advanced metrics.
Pick: Dodgers moneyline (-135 at WynnBet)
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