The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers end a three-game set today, and three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw makes his 2024 debut following offseason shoulder surgery.
However, struggling San Francisco starter Logan Webb is the focus of our Giants vs. Dodgers predictions for this afternoon’s series finale between NL West rivals.
Check out our full MLB picks for this matinee below.
Giants vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Logan Webb Under 5.5 strikeouts (-113 at Pinnacle)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
San Francisco Giants righty Logan Webb sandwiched the All-Star break with sloppy starts against the Toronto Blue Jays and Colorado Rockies, and a road date with the Los Angeles Dodgers will be anything but a walk in the park.
Webb was tuned up for 11 runs on 16 hits and five walks in just 11 innings across the noted two-start stretch, and he fanned just four batters in each. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has a middling 22.3% strikeout rate against righties, but they rank second with a .332 wOBA and 117 wRC+ while also pacing the majors with a 10.2 BB%.
I don't expect Webb to flip the switch today, especially with Dodger Stadium checking out as a hitter-friendly park. The weather forecast is also calling for the temperature to hover around 90 degrees with the wind potentially blowing out.
Additionally, there’s been a decline in Webb’s strikeout-related metrics this season. His 7.66 K/9, 20.7 K%, and 8.0% swinging-strike rate are all below last year’s respective 8.08, 22.8%, and 8.0% marks.
Opposing hitters also aren’t swinging at as many of Webb’s pitches outside of the strike zone, and they’re squaring him up better with his Statcast barrel rate and hard-hit percentage higher than last year, per FanGraphs.
Giants vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Logan Webb Under 5.5 strikeouts
Over 8.5
As noted, Webb hasn’t been sharp, and the Los Angeles bats should put runs on the board with favorable hitting conditions. I’m also skeptical of Clayton Kershaw in his season debut. He was good but not great in three minor-league starts with a 3.60 ERA across 10 innings. It’s also unlikely he’ll pitch deep after topping out at 67 pitches in his final tuneup last Friday.
Additionally, there’s also a decent edge to betting this same-game parlay through DraftKings. FanDuel has this SGP priced at just +205, which attaches a positive expected value of 12% to the +242 DraftKings odds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Dodgers odds
Giants vs Dodgers live odds
Giants vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-170) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: San Francisco +125 | Los Angeles -150
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Giants vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been back-and-forth action on this moneyline, with early Giants action followed by buyback on the Dodgers, and then more money coming in on San Fran.
- Pinnacle opened with Los Angeles at -142, and the Dodgers are trading at -129 as of Thursday morning, and it’s been similar at bet365 with LA moving from an opening -150 to -135.
- The total has remained at 8.5 at both shops, with the Under carrying the higher vig following action on that side.
Giants vs Dodgers trend
Webb has struck out four batters in consecutive games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers
Giants vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-California, SportsNet Los Angeles |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Logan Webb (7-8, 3.59 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Giants vs Dodgers latest injuries
Giants vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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