The Cleveland Guardians and the Toronto Blue Jays will open up a three-game series on Friday night at Rogers Centre.
The Guardians have won five in a row and are now 1.5 games ahead of the Minnesota Twins for the AL Central lead. The Blue Jays have sat idle since Tuesday following a postponed game and a scheduled day of rest, which may work to their benefit as they’ve dropped four of their last five.
Who will prevail in this one? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Blue Jays on Friday, August 12.
Guardians vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Blue Jays opened as -185 consensus favorites, but money has been flooding in on the Guardians since. Now Toronto can be had as low as -159, with most books hovering in the low 160s. The total was knocked down from its initial line of 9.0 to 8.5 overnight.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 8/12/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Guardians vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Friday, August 12, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes, Sportsnet
Guardians vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Cal Quantrill (8-5, 3.88 ERA): Quantrill has been brilliant for the Guardians at times this season, his most recent outing of six scoreless innings against the Astros serving as a shining example. Consistency has been hard to come by this year for the 27-year-old righty. Quantrill has a 2.85 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in wins this year (47 1-3 innings), but a 4.52 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in all other results (75 2-3 innings).
Jose Berrios (8-4, 5.19 ERA): Berrios had a forgettable beginning to August, allowing five earned runs to the Twins over just 3 2-3 frames last Friday. Blue Jays bettors will be hoping for a return to his form from July, in which he authored a 3.00 ERA over six starts. Berrios served up six earned runs to the Guardians over 4 2-3 innings on May 5, his only other start against them this season.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Blue Jays
Guardians vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays appear to be in a good spot to get out of a losing funk, so bettors should swallow this somewhat short price on the moneyline.
Jose Berrios’ poor start against the Twins last time out came on the road, where he owns a 7.50 ERA over 54 innings this year, but Berrios has pitched to a 3.23 ERA at home over 64 innings and has yet to take a loss on his own mound (6-0) in 2022. Opponents are batting .238 against him at Rogers Centre, contrasting sharply with his .310 opponent batting average everywhere else.
Despite a recent win streak, the Guardians’ lineup has hardly intimidated in the month of August. Josh Naylor is among those struggling at the dish, hitting .161 over his last 30 at-bats. Owen Miller (.120 over 25 at-bats) and Myles Straw (.107 over 28 at-bats) have been even worse.
Cal Quantrill counters for Cleveland, sporting some concerning road splits coming into this one. Quantrill owns a 3.16 ERA and .229 opponent batting average over 74 innings at home this season but a 4.96 ERA and .314 opponent batting average in 49 innings as a visitor.
Getting Berrios plenty of early run support will be important for Toronto, as the Guardians’ bullpen ranks second by ERA over the last two weeks (2.23). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should ensure that the Blue Jays build a sizable early lead, as he’s hitting .333 with two homers and five RBI in August. Guerrero has a hit in 17 straight games and 19 of his last 20 contests.
Trend bettors should note that the Blue Jays have won each of their last nine games following an off day.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-159 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
Over bettors have enough latitude on the total in this one to justify a wager.
Quantrill should be taken to task by a Blue Jays offense that’s fourth in the majors in runs per game in 2022 at 4.81. Even during their recent 1-4 run, Toronto has averaged four runs per contest.
Bo Bichette has led the charge for the Blue Jays, driving in a team-high nine RBI in August to go with a club-best three dingers. His increase in production has made up for the loss of George Springer to injury.
The Guardians’ offense has actually been better on the road than at home in 2022, plating 4.50 runs per game as the visiting team, compared to 4.12 per tilt at Progressive Field.
Amed Rosario has been a driving force for this offense all year, and he continues to show the way in August as he’s pacing Cleveland in homers (3), RBI (10), and total bases (22). Andres Gimenez has hit .400 over his last 30 at-bats, with Steven Kwan close behind at .357 over his last 28 at-bats.
In addition to attacking the imperfect Berrios — who was roughed up to the tune of six earned runs over 4 2-3 innings by Cleveland on May 5 — the Gs will also have their shot against a soft Blue Jays bullpen that’s 15th by ERA (3.65) over the last two weeks.
Of particular concern for interim manager John Schneider is closer Jordan Romano, who’s given up a run in each of his first three appearances this month.
The trends signal an Over, which is 7-0 in Quantrill’s last seven starts during Game 1 of a series and 29-11 in Toronto’s last 40 games against teams with winning records.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-113 at Unibet)
Best bet
We’ve yet to mention the impact Teoscar Hernandez could have on this game for the Blue Jays. Bettors should expect him to have another fine evening at the plate and back him with confidence to eclipse 1.5 total bases.
Hernandez had a nine-game hitting streak interrupted when he served as a pinch-hitter on Tuesday and struck out. He hit .314 with six extra-base knocks during that streak, including three four-baggers.
Hernandez has a noticeably higher slugging percentage at home of .548 compared to his .444 figure on the road. He should make a successful return trip to Rogers Centre on Friday night.
Teoscar Hernandez Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at FanDuel)
