The Boston Red Sox are coming off a nightmare of a weekend where they got swept by the Toronto Blue Jays, getting outscored by a ridiculous 40-10 score in the process. Now, can they wake up from that nightmare in time to open a series with the Cleveland Guardians?
The Guardians came out of the break by splitting a four-game set with the Chicago White Sox and are now ahead of the BoSox by one game in the American League Wild Card standings. So, where is the baseball betting value in Game 1?
Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Red Sox on Monday, July 25.
Guardians vs Red Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Red Sox opened this matchup as roughly -120 home favorites but bettors did not like what they saw from the BoSox over the weekend and the game is now basically a toss up with both sides at -110. The total hit the board at 9.5 and that number is juiced to the Under as of Monday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs Red Sox predictions
Picks made on 7/25/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can get a no-sweat first bet (up to $1,000) at FanDuel! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Guardians vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Monday, July 25, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN
Guardians vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zach Plesac (2-7, 4.02 ERA): It’s a bit of a luxury for the Guardians to use Plesac as a fifth starter. The right-hander had a stretch between May 30 and July 4 where he recorded a quality start in seven consecutive appearances.
Nick Pivetta (8-7, 4.50 ERA): Pivetta was very impressive basically for the whole months of May and June, then the wheels fell off in July. The right-hander has surrendered 20 earned runs on 23 hits over his last three starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Red Sox are 3-14 in their last 14 games when facing a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Red Sox
Guardians vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
It feels like the sky is falling in Boston at the moment, and it should.
Not only did the Red Sox get walloped by the Blue Jays over the weekend, but in their last three series overall (against the Yankees and Rays) they are just 1-9, scoring just three runs per game.
Yes, this can be one of the more dangerous offenses in baseball, but with Rafael Devers and Trevor Story on the shelf for a bit and J.D. Martinez nursing a back injury, this lineup just doesn’t have the same pop. Heck, Christian Vasquez hit in the 2-hole for Boston all weekend.
If those guys were guaranteed healthy, the Red Sox would be worth a look here because Plesac has some wonky advanced stats, but the right-hander is a control pitcher with an xFIP of 4.38 and has proven he can take advantage of sub-par lineups. And frankly, that’s what the Red Sox are at the moment.
In the month of July, the Red Sox rank 22nd in OPS and have the third highest strikeout rate.
It doesn’t help that they are countering Plesac with Pivetta. The right-hander was solid for most of the season up until July when the Yankees and Rays have teed off on him over his last three starts. And while the Guardians are not the Yankees, they aren’t too shabby when it comes to facing right-handed pitchers.
Cleveland ranks second in batting average, and eighth in OPS and in wRC+ when facing righties this season.
Mix in a Boston bullpen that got taxed over the weekend and it becomes very difficult to want to have anything to do with a Red Sox team with rumors of selling at the trade deadline swirling.
Prediction: Guardians moneyline (-102 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Right off the bat, this number feels a touch too high.
We’ve already talked at length about the Red Sox’s struggles. They are scoring three runs per game over their last 10 games, hitting just .211 over that stretch, tons of key injuries, yada, yada, yada.
So, now you are expecting them to do their part against a so-so pitcher and a Guardians bullpen that ranks 10th in WHIP and fifth in opponent batting average. No, thanks.
On the other side, yes, Pivetta has been a mess in his last three starts, but does that erase a stretch of two months where he pitched to a 2.18 ERA and limited opponents to a .193 batting average? I’m not so sure, and while Cleveland has done a solid job against right-handers, they still rank a middle-of-the-pack 15th in scoring, at 4.47 runs per game.
As noted, this number is too high for this matchup. Bet the Under here.
Prediction: Under 9.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Whether or not Nick Pivetta bounces back tonight, the one thing you can bet on is that he’s not going to be racking up the strikeouts by the bunches.
The right-hander has struck out just 22 batters in his last 26 1-3 innings over his last five starts, never recording more than five strikeouts in a game.
Tonight, he goes against a Cleveland team that is one of the hardest to punch out in baseball. The Guardians have the lowest strikeout rate in MLB when it comes to facing right-handers while also striking out the fewest per game at just 6.97 per contest.
Grabbing the Under at 4.5 looks like a solid bet.
Nick Pivetta Prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (-128)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Guardians vs. Red Sox picks, you could win $56.22 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
