After earning a win in the series opener on Friday, the New York Yankees will look to earn back-to-back victories when they host the Cleveland Guardians. This matchup will feature the Yankees sending out one of their best pitchers in Nestor Cortes.
Will the lefty work his magic and lead New York to a second win in a row? Continue reading our Guardians vs. Yankees MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, April 23 to find out.
Guardians vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
There was initially some uncertainty over who would be starting this game for the Guardians, and the Yankees opened as -182 favorites. Now, some sites have New York as even bigger favorites, but you can find the team at -178 on one sportsbook.
The total, which opened at 8.5, is now either 8 or 8.5 across all sportsbooks. You’ll either need to pay juice on the Under at 8.5 or on the Over at 8.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs Yankees predictions
Picks made on 4/23/2022 at 2:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Guardians vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City, New York
• Date: Saturday, April 23, 2022
• First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, YES Network
Guardians vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Cal Quantrill (1-0, 3.72 ERA): Quantrill was originally supposed to miss this start after being on the COVID-19 list, but the righty now appears ready to go out there and give Cleveland some innings. The 27-year-old is coming off of a fantastic season for the Guardians in 2021, and he has been solid to open up 2022. Quantrill has given up just four earned runs in 9.2 innings of work thus far.
Nestor Cortes Jr. (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Cortes has been superb to start the year, as he has given the Yankees 9.1 innings of shutout ball. He also happens to have racked up 17 strikeouts through two starts, so he is clearly feeling it early in the season. Cortes does, however, need his teammates to start helping him out a bit. New York didn’t give him any run support in his five scoreless innings against the Baltimore Orioles.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Guardians: Yu Chang 3B (Out), Luke Maile C (Out)
Yankees: Domingo German P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Yankees are 37-15 in their last 52 games against AL Central opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees
Guardians vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Cortes was essentially unhittable against the Orioles his last time out, as he gave up just three hits in five shutout innings and struck out 12 batters. The lefty now has 17 strikeouts to only one walk on the season, and he just always seems to put New York in a good position to win games — even if the team did end up losing his last start. The Yankees just need to provide Cortes with a little run support here. Considering New York has the second-best bullpen ERA in the league, it should only take three or four runs for the Yankees to win this one.
Getting to Quantrill is no easy feat for any offense, as the righty is actually somewhat similar to Cortes. The 27-year-old was excellent in relief last season, and he ended up getting stretched out as a starter and performing at a very high level. It is, however, worth noting that he was not supposed to start this game as of 24 hours before the opening pitch. He was on the COVID-19 list and got activated Friday evening, so he might not have gotten to go through his normal routine ahead of this one.
If Quantrill isn’t completely comfortable when he gets out there on the mound, the Yankees should be able to make him pay. For what it’s worth, the righty’s ERA was much worse when pitching on the road last season — it was 3.75 compared to his 2.35 ERA at home. He was also 6-2 with a 2.67 ERA when pitching in night games last season, but he was just 2-1 with a 3.40 ERA when pitching at home. That means that these game conditions aren’t likely to bring out his absolute best.
Prediction: Yankees (-178 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The Under is 11-3 in 14 Yankees games this season, and part of that has to do with the fact that only five teams in baseball have scored fewer runs than New York this year. And while Cleveland has one of the best offenses in MLB so far, the Guardians showed everybody last night that they are capable of going cold at the plate. With Cortes on the mound — and an elite bullpen behind him — it wouldn’t be too surprising if Cleveland were to struggle again.
With that in mind, it’s hard to see this game being too high-scoring with both teams sending some good pitchers to the mound. The Under continues to be a good play leaguewide with teams struggling to hit homers this year, and the changes made to the game balls appear to be impacting New York as much as anybody. With that said, you’ll want to keep backing the Under in Yankees games until we know for sure that things have changed.
The Under also happens to be 27-12-2 in New York’s last 41 games against teams with winning records.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Cortes is arguably coming off of the best start of his professional career, and he has made a habit of giving the Yankees a great chance to win games. Not only has the lefty allowed no earned runs over 9.1 innings of work this season, but Cortes had allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of his last 12 starts in 2021. The lefty rarely ever works into the sixth or seventh innings, but he often shuts down his opponent in his short starts.
Look for Cortes to do just that once again, which is why taking the Under on the Guardians team total is a good play. Cortes is one of the few pitchers in baseball that doesn’t seem to mind pitching in Yankee Stadium. His ERA was 2.53 in the Bronx last season, compared to 3.28 when pitching on the road. He’ll then turn the ball over to an elite bullpen, which should be able to finish the job for those that back this.
Pick: Guardians team total Under 3.5 (-132 at Unibet)
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