Sunday gives MLB fans a stacked 13-game slate, with plenty of MLB player props to choose from.
I've compiled my three best home run props for Sunday. As always, monitor the odds and available pricing, as the player prop market constantly changes.
Here are my home run MLB picks in the player prop market for Sunday, March 30.
Best MLB home run props today
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Castellanos to hit a home run (+400 at Caesars) -
Holliday to hit a home run (+600 at Caesars) -
Vaughn to hit a home run (+450 at Caesars)
HR picks for March 30
Nick Castellanos to hit a home run (+400 at Caesars)
The Washington Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies in the early window of Sunday’s MLB slate. Left-hander Mitchell Parker takes the mound for Washington, and he should serve as a good fade candidate.
It was a difficult rookie season for Parker in 2024, as he posted a 7-10 record with a 4.29 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression may be difficult to come by, given he ranked in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, and average exit velocity.
That’s good news for Nick Castellanos, who finished the 2024 campaign ranked in the 71st percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and launch angle sweet-spot rate. That success will likely continue against Parker, a pitcher Castellanos is 1-for-2 against.
That one hit? A home run.
Jackson Holliday to hit a home run (+600 at Caesars)
Just a few minutes after the first pitch of the Phillies-Nationals game, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles. We’re backing Baltimore second baseman Jackson Holliday to continue his tremendous start to 2025.
Through his first 12 plate appearances, Holliday boasts a .273 batting average, .545 slugging percentage, and .878 OPS. He remains MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 prospect and figures for a breakout season.
With one home run already in the books thus far, a second could be in store against right-hander Chris Bassitt, who's slated to take the mound for Toronto on Sunday. Holliday is 1-for-2 against Bassitt with a home run, and the pitcher’s metrics last season suggest another tough year is looming.
In 2024, Bassitt finished with a 4.16 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He also ranked in the 24th percentile in xERA and the 26th percentile in xBA.
Andrew Vaughn to hit a home run (+450 at Caesars)
Later in the afternoon, the Chicago White Sox host the Los Angeles Angels. Right-hander Jack Kochanowicz takes the mound for Los Angeles; his metrics were extremely troubling last season.
To conclude the year, Kochanowicz ranked in the 14th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Those poor metrics could present a problem against a hitter of Andrew Vaughn’s caliber.
In 2024, Vaughn finished in the 70th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, and squared-up rate. Furthermore, Vaughn faced Kochanowicz six times last season.
Across those six plate appearances, Vaughn produced a .333 batting average and .833 slugging percentage with one home run.
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