Japan vs Mexico World Baseball Classic Predictions, Picks, Odds: Sasaki Leads Japan Into Finals

Two of the frontrunners to win the World Baseball Classic MVP will face off on Monday night in Miami when Randy Arozarena and Mexico take on Shohei Ohtani for a chance to meet the USA in the WBC Championship Game.

Japan has cruised through the tournament at this point, having not played a game closer than six runs, including a 9-3 win over Italy in the quarterfinals. Mexico, on the other hand, has had to battle its way here and is coming off a thrilling 5-4 comeback win over Puerto Rico.

Unsurprisingly, Japan is a healthy favorite once again, as they hand the ball to phenom Roki Sasaki while Mexico counters with Los Angeles Angels starter, Patrick Sandoval.

Will Japan continue to cruise its way to the finals or is there value in backing Mexico to pull off the huge upset? I break it all down in my World Baseball Classic free betting picks below. 

Japan vs Mexico odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 20, 2023.

Japan vs Mexico picks and predictions

Japan has been a dominant favorite since the first pitch of the World Baseball Classic. They dominated Pool B play by going 4-0 with a +30 run differential and its closest game was a 7-1 thumping of pool runner-up Australia. They followed that up with a 9-3 drubbing of Italy in the quarterfinals.

Shohei Ohtani has been a superstar, hitting .438 with a 1.438 OPS while pitching to a 2.52 ERA and limiting opponents to a .167 batting average. He's also struck out 10 over seven innings. 

But this Japanese team is more than Ohtani. This team is deep, featuring a mix of NPB superstars like Roki Sasaki and Munetaka Murakami, and fellow MLB names such as Yu Darvish, Lars Nootbar, and Masataka Yoshida.

And it’s Sasaki who'll get much of the focus in this one. The 21-year-old phenom burst onto the baseball scene after a 19-strikeout perfect game in the NPB last season. He pitched to a 2.02 ERA and 0.80 WHIP while striking out 12 batters per nine innings over 20 starts with Chiba Lotte last year. It's expected he'll be heading for the Big Leagues sooner rather than later.

He throws as hard as Ohtani and has a devastating splitter that's been on display during the tournament. Sasaki struck out eight batters in just 3 2/3 innings in his only other WBC appearance. That said, this Mexico lineup may provide a little more resistance than Czechia. 

Mexico’s path here was a little more dramatic. An early tournament loss to Colombia had them on high alert, but they responded with a win over the United States. However, they followed that up by almost losing to Great Britain. So, it's been a roller coaster, to say the least.

They've been carried by the play of Randy Arozarena. The Tampa Bay Rays star outfielder is hitting .471 with a 1.566 OPS for Mexico and has clearly been the leader of this group, but they've also gotten solid performances out of Joey Meneses and Austin Barnes.

Mexico counters Sasaki with Patrick Sandoval, who was solid in three innings of work against a stacked USA lineup, allowing just one run on two hits while striking out two. The problem for Mexico is getting the ball from Sandoval to closer Giovanny Gallegos. The Mexico bullpen outside of Gallegos has been a bit of a mystery box. 

Japan might have had an easier path to Miami, but this is the superior squad. Mexico should put up a fight, but Japan hasn’t had a game closer than six runs for a reason. With the run line at just -1.5 (-130), there's value in Japan to return to the final.

My best bet: Japan -1.5 (-130 at DraftKings)

Japan vs Mexico moneyline analysis

Japan is listed as high as -280 for this semifinal matchup, which is the shortest favorite they've been all tournament. To put that in perspective, the Los Angeles Dodgers were -280 favorites in an Aug. 13 meeting with the Kansas City Royals (which the Dodgers won 13-3).

Now, Japan has clearly had an easier path to this point in the World Baseball Classic, but it’s not like they’ve just scraped by. Japan crushed the competition the entire way through the tournament. 

Mexico gets some credit for defeating two tough teams in the USA and Puerto Rico, but Japan still has the deeper lineup and the better bullpen. Japan ranks first in the tournament in ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average, and team OPS.

If Sasaki doesn’t let this moment get the best of him and navigates the top of the Mexico lineup well, he’ll have a chance to pitch deep into this game against a team that ranks eighth in batting average and 10th in OPS during this tournament. 

Japan is a worthy favorite here and this price is reasonable. 

Japan vs Mexico Over/Under analysis

The total here is interesting, sitting at 8.5. Japan has gone Over this number in all but one of their games, a 7-1 win over Australia in Pool C play. And for the tournament, they're averaging 9.4 runs per game. Now, Sandoval will be the best pitcher they've come across to this point, but this is a veteran lineup that won’t be intimidated by a Big League arm.

On the other side, Mexico has seemingly hit in spurts, and their lineup is definitely top-heavy, so this should come down to how Sasaki will respond in the moment. This is a big stage for a 21-year-old who hopes of playing in MLB someday.

I would lean Over here, but Mexico’s inconsistency with the bottom half of their lineup gives me pause. So, no official play for me on the total. 

Japan vs Mexico game info

Japan vs Mexico starting pitchers

Roki Sasaki: Sasaki is a 21-year-old right-hander who can hit triple digits with his fastball and had a strikeout-to-walk rate of over 7.0 last season.

Patrick Sandoval: Sandoval is coming off a breakout year with the Angles. The left-hander pitched to a 2.91 ERA and had more than a strikeout per inning.

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