Last night was an interesting one for the New York Yankees. They went to the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners with a 4-1 lead and lost 5-4. The collapse broke their seven-game win streak, which also happened to be the longest in baseball.
They’ll try to rebound tonight in the second matchup between the two teams. I break it all down in my Mariner vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks below.
Mariners vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
While I’m not sprinting to back a New York Yankees team that's been running hot over the last month, I understand the sentiment and the action that's followed New York.
Bryan Woo will take the mound for the Seattle Mariners and has been tremendous over two starts, posting a sub-1.00 ERA, but it's come with the caveat of the monster regression monster looming. That’s best explained by an expected ERA over 2.00.
While that’s still mighty impressive, it’s not in line with the two performances he’s posted this season. With that, we’re looking for ways to capture that regression, and one of the best ways to do that is in the prop market. My best bet is Juan Soto Over 1.5 bases.
Yet again, I'm back on this train. Those who have read me this season have bet and profited from this a ton. That should be no surprise given the season the MVP frontrunner is currently having. He’s been a little cooler with his hit rate than he has been at points during the season, but he still has a 60% hit rate over his last five games. What’s most promising about anything is the matchup for tonight.
Woo is primarily a two-pitch thrower with a fastball and sinker. You’ll probably see fewer fastballs from him, given New York is the best or second-best fastball-hitting team in the league. With that in mind, expect the sinker to be his preferred pitch this evening. That’s a problem against Soto.
He’ll enter this game with the best hard-hit rate amongst Yankees against the sinker, the best run value, and the best batting average. In other words, this matchup is outstanding, especially when you factor in that Woo is simply due for a bumpier start relative to his first two. This is the best lineup he’s faced this year, so you’d expect the cracks to show.
My projections made this -115. I’m jumping on the plus-money price as it’s easily the best value in this game.
Mariners vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Bryan Woo Over 4.5 hits allowed
Our SGP is highly correlated but follows a similar line of thinking of our best bet. Woo’s performance this season is unsustainable, given the metrics he’s put behind them.
I don’t expect him to fall off a cliff because I believe he’s still a very strong pitcher. However, I expect him to struggle against the most formidable lineup he’s seen this season, particularly when they hit both pitches he throws the most well. Give me the Yankees to do some damage to complete this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
Mariners vs Yankees live odds
Mariners vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-150) | New York -1.5 (+125)
- Moneyline: Seattle +140 | New York -166
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Mariners vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- Neither team has a decisive advantage over the other as the two are 6-4 against one another in the previous 10 meetings, with the Mariners holding a slight advantage.
- The Yankees again attracted money as its moneyline opened at -166 and shortened to as low as -180 before bouncing back close to its original opening number at the time of this article.
- Though the Yankees lost yesterday, it’s still been a great May for New York. They've won eight of their last 10 games, yielding bettors a profit of over 3.4 units in that stretch. The Mariners have been profitable, too, as winners of six of its last 10.
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Mariners vs Yankees trend
Juan Soto has gone Over 1.5 total bases in three of his last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs Yankees.
Mariners vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankees Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RSNW, YES |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Bryan Woo (1-0, 0.93 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Clarke Schmidt (5-1, 2.49 ERA) |
Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries
Mariners vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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