The Miami Marlins and New York Mets close out a four-game NL East series on Monday afternoon, with New York attempting to win three of those four matchups.
Miami lost the first two games at Citi Field but hit back with a 6-2 victory Sunday, handing the Mets just their second loss in the past seven outings. Left-handers Trevor Rodgers and David Peterson do battle in this matinee finale.
Here are our free MLB picks and predictions for Marlins at Mets on June 20.
Marlins vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
New York opened between -145 and -150 favorites and has since been bet up as high as -167 with Miami coming back as a +138 road underdog. The total hit the board at 8.5 Under -118 and quickly ticked down a half a run to 8 Over -115 but some books are back to 8.5 flat -110.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Marlins vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 6/20/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Marlins vs Mets game info
• Location: Stadium, City, State/Province
• Date: Monday, June 20, 2022
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Florida, SportsNet New York
Marlins vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Trevor Rogers (3-5, 5.87 ERA): Rodgers has needed extra run support on his last two showings, most recently lasting less than four innings in a no-decision versus Philadelphia in which the southpaw gave up four earned runs on five hits and walked six, throwing 94 pitches in that abbreviated start. Rodgers’ command has been a big issue, most notably with his four-seam fastball, which was his go-to pitch last season. So far in June, he’s walked 12 batters, struck out just nine and owns an ERA north of 8.00 while throwing 265 total pitches over just 12 1-3 innings of work.
David Peterson (3-1, 3.60 ERA): Peterson is coming off his first loss of the 2022 campaign, getting hit for four earned runs on six hits in four innings versus Milwaukee on Wednesday. He currently remains as the Mets’ fifth starter in the rotation due to some solid work so far this season. The lefty has started seven games and owns an ERA of 3.60 with a WHIP of 1.33 but isn’t a threat to go deep into games. Funny enough, Peterson has been great on the road but crap inside Citi Field, where he lugs a 5.50 ERA over 18 innings pitched in Flushing Meadows (vs. 2.05 road ERA).
Weather
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Key injuries
Marlins: Jesus Sanchez RF (Out), Jesus Aguilar 1B (Out), Brian Anderson 3B (Out), Joey Wendle 2B (Out), Edward Cabrera RP (Out), Cole Sulser RP (Out).
Mets: Eduardo Escobar SS (Probable), Travis Jankowski RF (Out), Colin Holderman RP (Out), Trevor May RP (Out), James McCann C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 37-18 in their last 55 games vs. NL East opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Mets
Marlins vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Miami erupted for five runs in the seventh inning Sunday, finishing with a 6-2 victory over the Mets. That was just the second time the Marlins have scored more than four runs over their last seven games, going 2-5 in that stretch.
The loss of Jesus Sanchez and Jesus Aguilar has taken a lot of the teeth from this lineup, as those bats ranked third and fourth in terms of home runs for the club so far this season. For the series, the Marlins are batting only .214 and outside of call-up Jerar Encarnacion's grand slam in the seventh inning on Sunday, the Fish have flopped in this four-game set.
Miami stares down left-hander David Peterson in the conclusion tonight, bringing with it an MLB-worst .205 batting average vs. left-handed pitchers on the year. Peterson has gone at least six innings only once this season but doesn’t get hit hard, allowing just three home runs and a slugging percentage of .345 over his 40 innings of work between starts and relief duties.
Outside of scoring just two runs in Peterson’s last start, the Mets have been giving him a ton of padding on the scoreboard whenever the southpaw toes the rubber. New York has served up 5.30 runs in support for Peterson and enters Monday with the third-best offensive production at home, plating 5.18 runs per contest inside Citi Field.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (-160 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Down “double Jesus” has pulled the power on this Miami lineup, with Sanchez and Aguilar accounting for 17 of the team’s total 71 home runs and 16.5% of the Marlins’ RBI. Their absence has left a big gap in the No. 4 and No. 5 holes, unable to capitalize on solid hitting from the top of the order.
Miami’s first three batters are a combined 9-for-33 in the first three games of the series, but the middle of the Marlins order hasn’t shown up and has left 13 runners in scoring position on base in those past three contests.
Peterson got roughed up against the Brewers' power bats last time out but doesn’t face the same threat against this floundering Marlins lineup. The lefty was sound in his previous two appearances – one start vs. the Angels and a relief outing vs. the Dodgers – and has pitched well to the top of the order this season.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
Monday’s game serves as the final leg of an extended 10-game road trip for the Marlins, who started the trek with steam by taking two of three games at Houston but missed close calls in Philadelphia before falling on ill-timed absences during this set with the Mets.
Rodgers’ pitch counts have to be a concern and New York has a patient offense that will take him deep into counts in the early innings. The Mets have one of the lower strikeout totals in the majors and lead the big with a .334 on-base percentage heading into Monday.
Miami could end up turning to the bullpen early into this matinee, with the relief arms lugging a collective 4.38 ERA on the year (fifth highest in the NL). The bullpen caught a break on Sunday, with just one inning needed in relief but saw those backup arms log heavy work in the opening two games of this series Friday and Saturday.
Pick: Mets moneyline (-160 at bet365)
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