The Miami Marlins have their backs against the wall tonight as the Philadelphia Phillies are just a win away from advancing to the National League Division Series and improving their World Series odds.
Will Aaron Nola finish the job as MLB odds suggest, or will the Marlins' bats wake up and extend the series?
Let’s break down Game 2 of Marlins vs. Phillies in our MLB picks and MLB playoff predictions.
Marlins vs Phillies odds
Marlins vs Phillies Game 2 odds
Marlins vs Phillies series odds
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia PhilliesMarlins vs Phillies predictions
While the Miami Marlins haven’t exactly hit that well this season, and while the Philadelphia Phillies’ pitching has held up for the most part, I do think this game has all the makings of an offensive war.
The Marlins had one of the highest contact rates during the regular season, and — as is the case with most contact-happy teams — they hit a ton of ground balls. All told, they sat atop the league in that regard, and in Game 1 they put the ball on the ground 65.2% of the time.
So, we have a pitcher in Aaron Nola who’s fallen off as his strikeouts have fallen way off his career norms, going from a high of 33.2% strikeout rate in 2020 to 29.8% and 29.1% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, all the way down to 25.5% this season. Attempting to regain his strikeout touch against a team that will get everything back in play will be a challenge. I think we’ll see the worse version of Nola here, and I’d expect his .241 expected batting average against to play up here and put plenty of runners on base for the Marlins.
Nola has a 6.75 ERA in three starts against Miami this year. On the other side, Braxton Garrett owns a 5.40 ERA in two starts against the Phillies. Philly will keep mashing against a very middling lefty. The Phillies were a Top-10 offense vs. southpaws this season, with Nick Castellanos (148 wRC+), Alec Bohm (142 wRC+), and Bryce Harper (137 wRC+) particularly making life miserable for lefties.
My best bet: Over 8 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Marlins vs Phillies same-game parlay
Over 8.5
Braxton Garrett 5+ hits allowed
Alec Bohm 2+ total bases
I’m seeing this same-game parlay rather clearly. I love the conditions for offense in this one, particularly with how well the Phillies have hit lefties, and one guy who has been front and center in that regard has been Bohm.
The Phillies infielder has an excellent .303 average against lefties, and while you might find some better hitters against southpaws on this roster, you won’t find one in a better matchup. Bohm is a splendid .286 against groundball pitchers, and he’ll be up against one in Garrett. He ripped a double in Game 1 and has hit this total bases prop in two straight.
Garrett owns a .272 expected batting average and gives up a boatload of contact, so we’ll have no issues getting five hits off him. In both starts against Philly this year, he went five innings and gave up six hits. He throws a lot of strikes considering his 4.4 walk rate, so the chances he makes it out without allowing many hits, especially against this lefty-killing offense, are very slim.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Marlins vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
It’s so difficult for me to recommend betting on the Phillies at this price with how poorly I forecast this game for Nola. Conversely, the Marlins have featured a Bottom-6 offense this year. And despite a positive matchup on paper, it’s very dicey to back them to win, particularly in what’s probably the hardest environment to play in this October.
Still, the value is on the Marlins. Nola’s ERA in September came in a shade under 6.00, and his strikeout rate was at its lowest mark since May. I couldn’t be more off Nola entering this start, and if not for the menacing offense on the other side, I’d be on the Marlins here.
Interestingly enough, just 16% of the bets and 13% of the handle are on the Marlins over at DraftKings. Additionally, 44% of the bets on the total and a solid 55% of the handle are on the Over.
Trend to know
The Over is 28-22-2 in Marlins division games this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Phillies
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Marlins vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA): The lefty has been the Marlins’ most consistent pitcher this year, wrapping up his third season in the bigs with a 3.66 ERA. His expected ERA of 4.51 nearly puts him in the bottom third of the league, and he relies heavily on ground ball outs.
Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46 ERA): The right-hander owned a 5.47 ERA in the month of September, surrendering four runs on seven hits against the Marlins earlier in the month. He did wrap it up with 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the Pirates.
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