The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers wrap up a three-game set at American Family Field on Wednesday afternoon.
New York won the first two games in this series and oddsmakers expect it to get the sweep, with MLB betting lines opening with New York as a slim -130 road favorite. It has already clinched a postseason berth, but Milwaukee is 2.5 games behind the Phillies for the final Wild Card spot and can't afford to let any games slip away.
Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Brewers on September 21.
Mets vs Brewers best odds
Mets vs Brewers picks and predictions
Taijuan Walker has solid surface numbers, but his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are ever-so-slightly worse than Adrian Houser's, while his barrel rate is significantly inferior (7.5% to 5.4%).
Houser is also an extreme groundball pitcher, making him a good fit for American Family Field which is conducive to home runs. That's reflected in his 3.73 ERA in 10 home games this season as well as his sparkling 2.81 ERA in 73 2-3 innings there last year.
Milwaukee's lineup also has better analytics when it comes to barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. That has led to the Brewers boasting a .374 xwOBAcon (tied for seventh in the majors) while New York is at .361 (14th).
The Mets are battling the Braves for the NL East title but regardless of who wins the division, the other club is guaranteed a playoff spot. The Brewers are in a more desperate position, sitting just behind Philadelphia for the final Wild Card spot and needing to string together some wins.
That desperation could fuel them as slim home dogs in this one, especially since the analytics suggest that there isn't much separating these clubs despite a 15-win discrepancy in the standings.
My best bet: Brewers moneyline (+114 at FanDuel)
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Mets vs Brewers betting preview
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•Moneyline analysis •Over/Under analysis •Trend to know •Game info •Injuries •Weather
Moneyline analysis
The Mets edged the Brewers 7-5 last night to give them five wins in a row and improve their record to an NL East best 95-55.
The Brewers dropped to 78-70 but despite their last two defeats, they're still 10-4 in their previous 14 contests at American Family Field.
The Mets are eighth in the majors with an OPS of .740 while the Brewers are 10th in the majors with an OPS of .727.
Although the Mets are one of the better teams when it comes to hitting for average (ranking fifth in the majors with a .257 BA), the Brewers have the superior lineup when it comes to hitting for power and taking walks.
Both teams are sending a pair of veteran right-handers to the rubber with the Mets starting Taijuan Walker and the Brewers going with Adrian Houser.
Walker has a solid 3.42 ERA through 26 starts but his expected ERA sits at just 4.01 due to a hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and strike rate that all rank among the bottom 25th percentile of pitchers.
Houser has a 4.85 ERA and while his hard-hit rate is also among the bottom 25th percentile of pitchers his barrel rate is in the top 20th percentile.
The Mets bullpen is 10th in the majors with a collective ERA of 3.57 while the Brewers bullpen is 18th with an ERA of 4.06. That said, both sets of relievers have an identical 1.24 WHIP and they have almost identical OBA numbers as well with the Brewers having a razor-slim .231 to .232 advantage.
Over/Under analysis
The Mets are 12-5 to the Over in their last 17 games while the Brewers are 5-1 O/U in their previous six contests at home. Neither Walker nor Houser has been that reliable this season and both have been getting hit hard while rarely making batters miss.
Led by Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil the Mets have been solid at the plate all year. They've been even better lately, leading the majors with an OPS of .811 while plating 5.53 runs per game over the last 15 days.
The Brewers have plenty of pop in their lineup and are third in the majors in home-run rate (3.6%) but they're also disciplined at the plate and rank fourth in walk rate (9.4%).
Milwaukee's biggest weakness has been left-handed pitchers, but it'll benefit from facing a Mets side that is starting a righty and has only one key southpaw (Joely Rodriguez) in its bullpen.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 3-14 in the last 17 meetings in Milwaukee. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Brewers
Mets vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Wednesday, September 21, 2022
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Starting pitchers
Taijuan Walker (12-4, 3.42 ERA): The veteran right-hander has pitched to a 3.71 FIP with a 1.18 WHIP and an OBA of .237 through 26 starts this season. He's coming off a pair of solid outings where he allowed a total of three earned runs across 14 1-3 innings, but those starts came against the two worst offensive teams in the NL in Miami and Pittsburgh.
Adrian Houser (6-9, 4.85 ERA): After putting together a career year in 2021, Houser has regressed this season pitching to a 4.18 FIP with a 1.49 WHIP and an OBA of .263 through 94 2-3 innings. He's fresh off a rough outing against the Yankees where he allowed five runs on seven hits and four walks in just three innings of work.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
