There are 16 games on the MLB betting board today, including a double-header between the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs. In the second game the Mets will send ace Max Scherzer to the mound as they look to increase their lead atop the NL East.
The Mets opened as -225 favorites for this contest while the struggling Cubs are +190 home underdogs at historic Wrigley Field. Here are our best free Mets vs. Cubs MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, July 16.
Mets vs Cubs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with the Mets at -210 and the Over/Under at 7.5. Early money has come in on the Mets and the Under, shifting the line to -225 and moving the total to 7 as of 11 a.m. ET.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mets vs Cubs predictions
Picks made on 7/16/2022 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mets vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Saturday, July 16, 2022
• First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
• TV: MARQ, SNY
Mets vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (6-1, 2.15 ERA): Scherzer was sidelined for a month and a half with an oblique injury but came back to the lineup last week and immediately returned to his dominant ways. He fanned 11 batters in six innings of shutout ball last Tuesday and followed up on that by throwing seven innings of one-run ball and striking out nine against the Braves this Monday.
Drew Smyly (2-5, 4.43 ERA): The lefty has pitched to a mediocre 1.34 WHIP with an OBA of .274 in 10 starts this year. Like Scherzer, Smyly missed all of June with an injury but when he returned to the mound on Sunday versus the Dodgers he was shredded for four runs in just two innings of work.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cubs are 6-22 in their last 28 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cubs
Mets vs Cubs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
The Mets destroyed the Cubs 8-0 last night in the first contest of a four-game set at Wrigley Field. That improved the Mets' record to 56-34 and gave them a two-game lead atop the NL East, while the Cubs are near the bottom of the NL Central with a 34-54 mark.
The Mets are ninth in the majors with an OPS of .728 and have bumped that number up to .742 in the month of July. The Cubs are 14th in the majors with an OPS of .715, dropping to just .639 this month. That's bad news with the Cubbies facing off against Max Scherzer tonight.
The future Hall-of-Famer is having another banner campaign, and the only reason that he isn't higher on the Cy Young odds board is due to missing a month and a half with an injury. In 10 starts, Scherzer has pitched to a sizzling 2.15 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP and an OBA of just .186 while striking out 79 batters in 62 2-3 innings.
The Cubs respond by sending veteran Drew Smyly to the mound. Smyly's career hit a rut after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017, but even after recovering, he remains a subpar pitcher. He has a 4.43 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this season, almost identical to his 4.48 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 126 2-3 innings with Atlanta last year.
The Mets also have the advantage in the bullpen, with their relief pitchers posting a 3.53 ERA with an OBA of .225 while Cubs relievers collectively have a 4.48 ERA with a .250 OBA.
With the Mets boasting a significant advantage on the mound and at the plate, and being in much better form with the Cubs having lost seven in a row, we're not overthinking this one. Take the road team on the run line.
Prediction: Mets run line -1.5 (-125 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The total hit the board at a low 7.5 before ticking down to 7, but we still like this game to go below the total.
When it comes to batting analytics, both of these squads are below average and actually tied for 20th in the majors with an xwOBAcon of .375.
Despite offensive explosions in their last two games, the Mets have been up-and-down at the dish lately. They also have an OPS of just .697 against southpaws like Smyly.
That said, the Cubs are worse at the plate and have an even tougher matchup against a dominant hurler like Scherzer, who is among the top tenth percentile of all pitchers in hard hit percentage, expected batting average, strikeout rate, and walk rate.
With the wind also blowing in towards home plate at more than 14 mph, I'm taking the Under here.
Prediction: Under 7 (-105 at DraftKings)
Best bet
This matchup looks like the prime spot to back a team on the run line, with the Mets clearly in a different class than the Cubs. They have a far better starting pitcher, a superior lineup, and a more reliable bullpen. And they've been winning big, with 45 of their 56 victories this season coming by multiple runs.
Pick: Mets run line -1.5 (-125 at bet365)
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