The NLCS heads back west as the Los Angeles Dodgers look to close out the New York Mets with a World Series berth on the line.
The Mets made it clear in Friday’s Game 5 that they weren’t going down without a fight, earning a 12-6 victory and extending the series through the weekend. Does the train stop here?
Read on to see what I’m targeting with my Mets vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, October 20.
Mets vs Dodgers prediction
Who will win Mets vs Dodgers Game 6?
The Los Angeles Dodgers will win Game 6 and advance to the World Series. They’re utilizing a bullpen game and are in a good spot to do so effectively with plenty of well-rested options, especially after an off day. It was a nice ride for the New York Mets, but I think the fun ends tonight.
My Mets vs Dodgers best bet
Under 8.5
(-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Dave Roberts is opting for another bullpen game in Game 6 after using the approach to great effect in Game 4 against the Padres but a disastrous result in Game 2 against the Mets. Will Sunday’s bullpen game be more of the former or the latter?
The Dodgers are relatively well-rested in the bullpen, with Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, and Evan Phillips, likely the team's three most effective relief arms, all throwing just once this series. Both teams also had an off day, so it wouldn’t be a surprise for a few high-leverage relievers to be left in for more than three outs.
Roberts stated he may be more aggressive with his pitching changes in Game 6. I expect him to have a quick trigger with any ineffective arms while leaving high-leverage arms in longer than usual if they're retiring batters. The Mets have two or fewer runs in three of the series’ first five games, so I’m not expecting an offensive explosion.
L.A. has been strong out of the pen in the postseason overall, with a 2.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. On the flip side, Sean Manaea gets the nod for New York. The 32-year-old earned the win in Game 2, allowing two earned runs on two hits and four walks while notching seven strikeouts.
The left-hander has solid numbers with a 3.75 xERA and 3.83 FIP. He won’t wow you with his stuff or his metrics, but he’s an effective veteran arm. He’s mostly been effective against this Dodgers lineup in the past as no regular with more than six at-bats has an OPS above .840 against him other than Mookie Betts and Will Smith.
Manager Carlos Mendoza has been aggressive with his bullpen utilization, and I expect more of the same after an off day.
Managers only become more aggressive with their relief arms the later a series goes on, and I’m of the belief that this approach could lead to the first Under of the NLCS.
Mets vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers moneyline
Under 8.5
Mookie Betts 2+ total bases
The bullpen game may scare some folks off, but it appears as though Roberts’ crew is well-equipped to pull it off, considering the rest that many of his top relief arms have been able to accrue.
Such is life when the first five games of the series have all been blowouts. It may not have been the most dramatic television for baseball fans, but it was welcome news for Roberts as he manages a team with just four starting pitchers trying to survive a long postseason run.
I’m taking the Dodgers to advance by winning Game 6. They were a very tough out at home during the regular season with a 52-29 record, and the bats tend to show up in the home confines of Dodger Stadium — they led the league with a 123 wRC+ at home.
Mookie Betts is one Dodger bat who has had success against Manaea in his career, going 10-for-32 with three home runs, eight RBI, and a 1.153 OPS. Betts typically excels in his home ballpark, where his wRC+ jumps 12 points (147), and his ISO jumps 90 points (.247).
It was a nice ride, New York, but I’m betting on that ride ending here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Dodgers odds
Mets vs Dodgers live odds
Mets vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +120 | Los Angeles -140
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-170) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mets vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets usually win when Manaea is on the mound, going 17-4 across his last 21 starts.
- The Dodgers have covered the run line in 28 of their last 47 games.
- The Dodgers were 3-4-1 O/U when utilizing a bullpen game during the regular season.
Mets vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers are 55-31 at home this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Dodgers.
Mets vs Dodgers Game 6 info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Sean Manaea (2024 postseason: 2-0, 2.65 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Bullpen Game |
Mets vs Dodgers latest injuries
Mets vs Dodgers weather
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