Mets vs Nationals Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bad Pitchers Meet Terrible Lineups

The New York Mets will try to clinch their first series win in nearly a month when they face off against the Washington Nationals on Monday afternoon.

The Mets and Washington split a doubleheader on Sunday after rain suspended their game on Saturday. New York now holds a 2-1 lead in the four-game series heading into today’s contest.

Both teams will send struggling lefties to the mound for this game at Citi Field, and I'll break down what that means for bettors in my free MLB picks for the Mets vs. Nationals on May 15.

Mets vs Nationals odds

Mets vs Nationals predictions

After opening the season by playing like one of the best teams in baseball for six weeks, the New York Mets have lost the thread over the past month. Since beating the San Francisco Giants in the first two games of a four-game series in late April, the Mets have gone 6-14 to fall 5.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings.

Rather than a single problem, New York has seen declining performance in all facets of the game. The Mets are pitching to a 4.88 ERA in May while scoring just 3.5 runs per game in the month. That would make New York the second-worst offensive team in the league if that was its season average — while the pitching would merely be sixth-worst. 

The Washington Nationals haven’t had the same kind of drop off in performance. Instead, they’re just bad. On the year, Washington ranks 26th in runs scored per game (3.90), and not a single batter in the Washington lineup that would put fear in the heart of an opposing pitcher, with Victor Robles — currently on the IL — leading the team with a .748 OPS. Even he only has a 115 OPS+, meaning all of the best Nationals hitters are merely average. 

Nationals' starter Patrick Corbin hasn’t been able to buy a win for four seasons now, but his 4.87 ERA is at least acceptable for a backend starter. Corbin may give up too many hits and struggle to put away hitters, but he also isn’t walking batters which has allowed him to compete.

The Mets are starting 27-year-old David Peterson, who provided over 100 solid innings as a swingman for New York in 2022. However, he hasn’t been able to reproduce that success in 2023, allowing an NL-worst 29 earned runs in seven starts. If Peterson can’t turn things around, he may not be handed the ball much longer as New York's rotation begins to get over some early-season injuries.

So how much offense should we expect today? Oddsmakers have set a relatively high total, with most books offering an Over/Under of 9.5 runs. This is a big number for two teams that simply aren’t hitting the ball all that hard right now. Fatigue may also be an issue as the Mets and Nationals play their third game in just over 24 hours.

While we can’t expect Peterson and Corbin to engage in a classic pitcher’s duel, these two offenses aren’t poised to put up big numbers against anyone. With the number as high as it is, I’m backing the Under for Monday’s game.

My best bet: Under 9.5 runs (-105 at DraftKings)

Mets vs Nationals moneyline analysis

The Mets opened today’s game as a -155 favorite. That number has remained stable, though you can get odds as short as -150 on New York at some books. Meanwhile, the Nationals are fetching as much as +140 as the underdog on some sites.

Heading into the year, the Mets were expected to be one of the best teams in the National League. Now under .500, New York has been an awful team for bettors — losing over 10 units on the moneyline. The Nationals may have an even worse record, but due to lower expectations, they’ve won over five units for bettors this season.

While both starters have struggled this year, there are a couple of reasons to think Corbin may have more success. He’s been the better pitcher this season, and New York doesn't have noticeable platoon splits. On the other hand, Washington is hitting far better against lefties — posting a .782 OPS against southpaws compared to .637 against righties.

That’s a dramatic difference and one that gives the Nats a real chance at winning this game. Given that we can get a solid plus number on the visitors, I’m leaning towards the hosts on the moneyline today.

Mets vs Nationals Over/Under analysis

The total for today’s game opened at nine runs, and that number has come up a bit during the day, with the Over/Under sitting at 9.5 runs as of noon on Monday. The odds are about the same on both sides of the line, and it’s possible to find -105 odds on both the Over and Under if you shop around. 

Both of these teams have struggled at the plate, and as such, they’re both playing to the Under this year. The Under is 22-17-2 in Mets' games and is a similar 22-16-2 when the Nationals play.

New York has played to totals of nine runs or less in eight of its last 11 games while the Nats are also generally keeping the score down as well — with Washington going Under 9.5 runs in 10 of their last 14 contests.

We know that the two starting pitchers today are nothing to get excited about. However, these teams haven’t been scoring regularly against anyone, regardless of who they’re lined up against. Right now, the smart move is to ride the Under in this matchup, especially when oddsmakers set a relatively high total like today.

Mets vs Nationals game info

Starting pitchers

David Peterson (1-5, 7.68 ERA): Peterson is struggling to get hitters out in 2023, a disappointing start for a pitcher that had taken on an important role for the Mets last season. While New York had hoped Peterson could fill in while pitchers like Justin Verlander recovered from injury, he has thrown to a 5.06 FIP and a 1.676 WHIP, numbers that just won’t cut it for a team that wants to compete this year. In his last start, Peterson allowed four runs on seven hits over 3 1/3 innings against the Cincinnati Reds.

Patrick Corbin (1-5, 4.87 ERA): While the veteran 33-year-old has continued to fill a starting role for the Nationals, Corbin has done little more than eat innings for Washington over the past four years. Since 2020, he has a combined record of 18-47, twice leading the majors in earned runs allowed. He’s actually throwing a bit better in 2023, showing improved control even as his strikeout rate has fallen to 6.1 per nine innings. Corbin allowed two earned runs and eight hits in six innings in a loss to the Giants last Tuesday.

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The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Mets and the Nationals. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals

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