Saturday brings us a stacked slate in Major League Baseball, and later on in the day we’ll have the chance to back some hitters to go yard against some hurlers who have yielded plenty of fly balls – and many which have left the park.
I have compiled my three best home run props for the first day of action. As always, monitor the odds and available pricing, as the player prop market is constantly changing.
Here are my free MLB player props for Saturday, March 29.
Best MLB home run props today
Mark Vientos (+430 at FanDuel)
Kerry Carpenter (+600 at DraftKings)
Shea Langeliers (+500 at FanDuel)
HR picks for March 29
Mark Vientos (+430 at FanDuel)
We’ll begin in Houston, where the New York Mets are set to take on Houston Astros right-hander Spencer Arrighetti who allowed 21 home runs in 145 innings a season ago.
Arrighetti profiles as a heavy pitcher, giving up over 27% of his contact in the air, which is just what this assembly of power bats on the Mets would like to hear.
Mark Vientos may be the man best-suited to back here, coming off a season where he went yard 27 times in 413 at-bats. He’s yet to really make an imprint through two games, which has left us a bit of value in this number, but that should change on Saturday in this matchup.
Vientos hit 10 homers against fly-ball pitchers to rank third on the team in 2024, but it came in just 158 at-bats and sat next to a solid .266 average which was second to only Francisco Lindor.
The young slugger is vulnerable to strikeouts, something Arrighetti can produce, but the right-handed hurler has largely been a three true outcome pitcher which opens the door for Vientos.
Kerry Carpenter (+600 at DraftKings)
Going against a Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher is often not very fun, but the good news is that you often find juicy odds when you choose to do so. That’s the case on Saturday with Kerry Carpenter, one of the most prolific power hitters in baseball.
The inherent risk with Carpenter is that he is usually lifted for a pinch-hitter late in the game when the opposing manager counters with a lefty out of the bullpen, but the conditions here should be favorable.
The Detroit Tigers will have a potentially shortened bench due to Gleyber Torres picking up an injury on Saturday, and the Dodgers have taxed their lefty relievers in an effort to exploit Detroit’s issues with southpaws, so he should find enough opportunities.
Carpenter was first on the team with a 1.106 Expected Slugging Percentage and two home runs versus splitters from right-handers, a pitch he’ll see plenty of from Sasaki. He should also enjoy this one if Sasaki’s heavy fly-ball tendencies from his opening start are to be believed here.
Shea Langeliers (+500 at FanDuel)
The man they call Bangeliers has yet to bang through two games, but after knocking 29 out of the park in 2024, I believe Shea Langeliers is ready to get his 2025 home run count going on Saturday.
Bryce Miller is a prime target when it comes to finding home-run hitters. He yielded a 33% fly-ball rate a season ago, which was well over the league average. This led to him allowing 21 home runs in his 180 1/3 innings a year ago.
Miller operates as mainly a fastball pitcher but throws a sinker and splitter as his main off-pitches – two offerings Langeliers crushed a season ago. Against righties, he led the team with a .854 xSLG on split-fingers, resulting in two home runs on just 38 pitches, and he also hit two home runs against 217 sinkers with a positive .476 xSLG.
A firm 13 of his 29 longballs last year came off fly-ball pitchers, compared to just seven against ground-ball arms. Against a pitcher who has made a bad habit of allowing hard-hit balls and barrels around a rather unassuming strikeout rate, I think it’s about time to press the Bangeliers button.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
(+550) - Aaron Judge
(+185) - Mike Trout
(+295) - Yordan Alvarez
(+300) - Cody Bellinger (+700)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Not intended for use in MA.
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