The New York Mets have looked lost at the dish through the early part of this MLB season, but their pitching has been so good that they sit just a half-game behind the Atlanta Braves for first place in the National League East.
But so are the Philadelphia Phillies, as the NL East foes open up what should be an entertaining weekend series between division rivals. Who is the best MLB bet in Game 1?
Check out our free picks and predictions for Mets vs. Phillies on Friday, April 30, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Mets vs Phillies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 4 p.m. ET, New York is out to -160 at PointsBet USA, after opening -145 Thursday afternoon and initially dipping to -140. The Mets are attracting 62 percent of moneyline bets and 78 percent of moneyline dollars. The total dropped from 8.5 to 8 this morning and is now 8 (Over -120), with the Over taking 59 percent of bets/64 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMets vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Marcus Stroman (3-1, 2.22 ERA): Stroman is coming off his worst start of the season, but he has been very impressive for the most part. Stroman uses a good mix of pitches and windups to mess with hitters' timing and, as a result, he is very hard to barrel up. Batters are hitting just .212 off Stroman this season.
Chase Anderson (0-3, 6.48 ERA): What you see is what you get with Anderson. The right-hander isn’t much more than an innings-eater at this point in his career, except that he doesn’t pitch that many innings. Anderson is getting hit hard and is coming off his worst start as a Phillie allowing six runs on six hits last time out against the Rockies.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Dellin Betances RP (Out), Seth Lugo RP (Out).
Phillies: Bryce Harper RF (Questionable), Didi Gregorius SS (Questionable), Jean Segura 2B (Out), Archie Bradley RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0-1 in the Mets' last six games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
Moneyline pick
Yes, everyone in Queens, including owner Steve Cohen, is confused about the Mets' struggles at the plate to start the season. Let’s put it this way, it’s not good if Jacob deGrom has the team’s best batting average.
Francisco Lindor looks lost right now, Pete Alonso has a big hole in his swing, and as a result, the Mets rank 29th in scoring. If there is a little bit of a bright side, they do rank 14th in the league in batting average, hitting .234, and don’t strike out a ton (outside of Alonso). They just haven’t been able to get that clutch hit.
Luckily, they’ll get a chance to get some hits against the Phillies’ Anderson. The right-hander is finding way too much of the plate with his fastball and cutter. On top of that, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is not good at 1.63.
Opposing Anderson is Stroman, who will try to bounce back after his first non-excellent start of the season. He faces a Phillies offense that he has dominated twice already this season, and one that shares several similarities to the Mets, hitting for an OK average, but ranking 24th in scoring.
With both offenses struggling, siding with the much better starter is the way to go in this one.
PREDICTION: Mets (-150)
Over/Under pick
The Under has gone 5-0-1 in the Mets’ last six games and it’s easy to see why: they have great pitching and can’t score. New York is scoring just 3.21 runs per game this season and has scored three runs or fewer in seven of its last 10 games overall.
The Phillies don’t do much better. They average 3.96 runs per game this season and have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five. And now, they have to face off against Stroman, who has limited them to one run on seven hits over 12 innings in two starts against them this season.
With two struggling offenses going head-to-head it’s hard to have confidence in this one going Over the total.
PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (-110)
Mets vs Phillies betting card
- Mets (-150)
- Under 8.5 (-110)
Picks made on 4/30/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET
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