The Subway Series returns tonight as the New York Yankees welcome the New York Mets for a two-game set.
Both teams came out of the All-Star break by splitting their four-game series against Florida teams. Today's Mets vs. Yankees predictions are largely avoiding the moneyline, and instead approaching the total.
What's the best bet here? Read on to find out with my free MLB picks on Tuesday, July 23.
Mets vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
With mostly sharp lines across the board in this matchup, I'm only seeing an edge on the total.
I project 9.2 runs tonight, and I'm happily grabbing the Over 8.5. It should be a lovely, warm evening in Yankee Stadium, with the wind blowing slightly out. That's an excellent place to start creating an environment for scoring runs. But more than that is the matchup at hand.
Jose Quintana will grab the mound for the New York Mets, and it's been a tough season for the lefty. He comes into this game with one of the worst expected ERAs in baseball at 5.17. That's problematic in itself, but his struggles, in particular, will be an issue against the New York Yankees lineup.
Quintana's hard-hit rate is in the bottom 15% of baseball, and his barrel rate is below the league average. As we've heavily documented, the Bronx Bombers are one of two teams that rank in the Top 5 in both barrel and hard-hit rates. That's a problem for Quintana this evening. This relatively low for a Yankees team against a pitcher like Quintana reflects New York's struggles against left-handed pitching. However, there are more than enough advantages to overcome those issues tonight.
On the other side of things, another start continues Luis Gil's compelling story. Has the league "figured him out," or is this just a bit of rough luck? It's a little of both, but the Mets should be able to get after him enough today to push this total over.
Gil's most significant issues are relatively straightforward: He walks too many batters (11.7%, highest among qualified starters) and opponents barrel up the ball too often against him when he finds the zone. The Mets favor him well in each of those metrics, particularly in barrel rate, where they rank fifth. There's a direct path to plenty of runs this evening.
Mets vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
It's pretty simple at this point. If the Yankees face left-handed pitchers who have issues giving up the hard-hit ball, I'm betting on Aaron Judge. Today, I'm pairing the Over 1.5 bases of Aaron Judge with our best bet.
Why? It's pretty simple. Judge will come into this one with terrific numbers against left-handed pitching. He has the 6th highest isolated power rating against left-handed pitching of any batter in baseball. Pretty self-explanatory. If Judge can avoid being walked by Quintana, then we love his chances here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Yankees odds
Mets vs Yankees live odds
Mets vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: NYM +1.5 (-156) | NYY -1.5 (+130)
- Moneyline: NYM +137 | NYY -162
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mets vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets have three wins in the last four meetings with the Yankees.
- After a terrible stretch, the Yankees have gone 5-5 in their last 10.
- The Mets have gone 7-3 in their last 10, making bettors just over a unit.
- There's been little movement on the opening lines, with both the run line and moneyline prices staying within two cents of the opening numbers.
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Mets vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 71 games (+14.80 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees
Mets vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WPIX, YES, TBS |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (4-6, 4.13 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (10-5, 3.17 ERA) |
Mets vs Yankees latest injuries
Mets vs Yankees weather
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