What's more entertaining than watching some of the biggest names in Major League Baseball launch moon shots into the stands? Absolutely nothing, especially on a Monday with no other sports to distract you (yep not even WNBA). The MLB All-Star break begins with the annual home run derby at 8:00 p.m. ET on Monday night, and once again Vegas is taking wagers on the event.
You can bet on who will win the entire competition and there are odds on who will win each of the first round matchups as well. Pirates slugger Josh Bell is the favorite but don't count out rookies Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Pete Alonso who are close behind him. **video
Current MLB home run leader, Christian Yelich, dropped out of the competition on Sunday due to a back injury and was replaced by Matt Chapman. We break down the odds for this slugfest and give our best picks and predictions.
THE BALLPARK
This year's venue, Progressive Field in Cleveland, favors left-handed power hitters thanks to a 19-foot wall running from left to left-center field and that height dropping to nine feet from center field to the right field pole. The longest home run ever hit at the field was a 511-foot monster of a shot by Jim Thome in 1999.
Left Field - 325 feet
Left-Center - 375 feet
Center Field - 410 feet
Right-Center - 370 feet
Right Field - 325 feet
WEATHER REPORT
Monday is expected to be a beautiful day in Cleveland with temperatures peaking in the high 70's and cooling to the mid and low 70's by the time the competition is underway.
It shouldn't be too hot or too humid so the balls might not travel as much as last year but don't count out that pesky breeze from nearby Lake Erie. There's expected to be a decent wind blowing and it could either push balls back or help carry them out depending on the direction.
Here's the breakdown of the sluggers:
Josh Bell +350
Bell is the favorite and for good reason, he's a power hitting switch-hitter who can absolutely mash. 20 of his 27 home runs this season have come from the left side of the plate. He pulls the ball at a rate of 43.2 percent and his hard contact rate of 49.2 percent is better than anybody else in this competition.
Bell's average exit velocity of 93.9 mph also ranks first on the list of this year competitors and he has also hit the longest long-ball out of anyone in this group this season, cranking a 474-footer back in April.
Bell was the front-runner on my list and that was before Yelich dropped out. At +350 he still offers solid value so don't hesitate to take him if, like me, you see everything lining up for the big man.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +450
Vladdy Jr. has fewer home runs than anyone else on this list but he's practically baseball royalty with his father winning the derby back in 2007. Junior has incredible power, with an average distance of 421 feet on his eight jacks. While he is a right-handed batter, the launch angle that you can see in the video below proves that he should still send plenty of balls over that towering left field fence.
That said, Guerrero is still just a rookie and besides the freak named Aaron Judge, rookies rarely do well in this competition. Since 1991, when the Home Run Derby started to resemble what it is now, only seven rookies have participated. Five of them were eliminated in the opening round, with Judge and Joc Pederson the only ones to advance.
Joc Pederson +500
Speaking of Pederson, he might not be the most exciting name on this list, but he's got more than a few things going for him: he's left-handed, he has an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph and, most importantly, he competed in the event before. He finished in second-place at the 2015 derby and that experience could prove invaluable.
Pete Alonso +500
The other rookie at the event, Alonso has been an absolute revelation for the Mets with 30 dingers through 89 games. Like Guerrero he's a right-hander and although he doesn't have Vladdy Jr's launch angle he does have a tendency to mash most of his taters over the center field wall. If he steers clear of pulling the ball towards that left field fence, he'll have a chance.
Carlos Santana +700
While he might not be able to play a killer version of Black Magic Woman, this Carlos Santana can hit a baseball more than 400 feet. He's in the competition representing the hometown team and has clubbed 19 homers while hitting with an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph. As a switch-hitter he's mashed 15 of those dingers from the left side of the plate.
Santana's played nine seasons in Cleveland so he knows the ins and outs of the ballpark better than any batter in the event. That familiarity could give him an edge, don't forget that two of the last four winners of the derby (Todd Frazier in 2015 and Bryce Harper last year) were hitting at home. At +700 I love his value and I'm dropping a dime on the hometown hero as well as Bell.
Alex Bregman +800
I love Alex Bregman as a player, I really do. But in this event I don't see him having much of a chance even with the experience he gained from competing last year. Bregman has one of the lower average exit velocities among this group at 88.8 mph and the average distance of his dingers is 379 feet, which ranks last.
All but three of his 23 homers this season have been from center towards the left field line. He will have a hard time clearing that 19-foot wall consistently, even with his impressive launch angle.
Matt Chapman +800
Chapman was a late replacement but he's more than deserving of being on this list. The 26-year-old third baseman is known more for his defensive prowess than his power at the plate but he's already hit 21 homers this season and his average exit velocity is just behind Bell at 93.7 mph. But he's another right-hander and that will hurt in this stadium.
DISCUSS WHO YOU THINK WILL BE THE WINNER OF THE HOME RUN DERBY IN OUR FORUMS
Ronald Acuna Jr. +1000
Acuna has followed up on his rookie of the year campaign with a big sophomore season, cranking 21 dingers so far. But he's the smallest player in this lineup, tipping the scales at just 180 pounds, and the biggest long shot.
One thing I like about Acuna's chances is that the average distance on his his bombs is 422 feet, the highest number out of anyone on this list. In addition, despite being right-handed he's shown plenty of power to the opposite field, hitting about half his dingers over the center or right field walls.
That said, power takes muscle and muscle takes size. I can't remember the last winner of this event who was under 200 pounds. It's safe to fade Acuna in this one.
Here's a full list of the odds for the winner of the 2019 Home Run Derby, courtesy of the Superbook at Westgate:
Josh Bell (+350)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+450)
Pete Alonso (+500)
Joc Pederson (+500)
Carlos Santana (+700)
Alex Bregman (+800)
Matt Chapman (+800)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1000)
Opening Round Matchups:
Matt Chapman (+120)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-140)
PICK: Guerrero Jr.
Alex Bergman (+120)
Joc Pederson (-140)
PICK: Pederson
Josh Bell (-190)
Ronald Acuna Jr.(+160)
PICK: Bell
Pete Alonso (-120)
Carlos Santana (EVEN)
PICK: Santana
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
21+. NJ only. Odds may vary. Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.
