Baseball’s best converge at Globe Life Field in Texas for the 2024 Midsummer Classic as we get a glimpse into the future with 37 players suiting up for their first MLB All-Star game.
That includes Pirates phenom Paul Skenes, who earned the start for the National League while dominating hitters in the first half and will try to lead the senior circuit to its first winning streak in more than a decade.
And with lights-out pitching the theme of this showcase for the last several years my All-Star Game predictions and MLB picks are targeting the total. We've also got you covered with MLB All-Star game prop picks for your full betting slip.
MLB All-Star Game prediction
My best bet
No run first inning (-138 at FanDuel)
My analysis
You are going to hear about two specific trends when it comes to All-Star Game betting.
One, the American League has dominated this game, going 21-4-1 in the last 26 meetings, and had won nine straight times before the National League was able to pull out a 3-2 win last year.
Two, pitching has dominated with the Under going 14-3 in the last 17 Midsummer Classics, including the last four in a row.
It’s hard to take anything away from any trend, particularly one in an All-Star game, but the latter holds a little more water. Of course, this All-Star game power outage is baked into the odds these days with the total for this year’s matchup sitting at 7.5 but even that number may not be low enough.
The AL and NL have played below the 7.5 total 11 times in the last 15 All-Star Games and this showcase of baseball’s best talent has seen an average of 6.6 total runs per game during that period.
Now, in years past we might have been limited to the full-game total here, but with sports betting's continued growth, we are getting more and more options to wager on in these events. This includes the very popular baseball bet, the YRFI and NRFI (Yes/No Run in the first inning).
With substitutions coming early and often, this can be a frustrating game to handicap. But we do know the starting lineups.
Paul Skenes will be the first rookie to start in the All-Star Game since Hideo Nomo back in 1995. The Pittsburgh Pirates phenom has been remarkable with a 1.90 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and striking out 12.1 batters per nine innings.
Of course, he’s been strong in the first inning as well, pitching to a 2.45 ERA and limiting opponents to a .184 batting average. Not too shabby.
Countering Skenes is Baltimore Orioles ace and former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes. The right-hander owns a 2.43 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP. Burnes has been solid in the first inning this season as well with a 2.37 ERA and a .243 opponent batting average.
It’s been clear that it’s been easier for pitchers to stick to their routines easier in the All-Star Game lately, and the old adage goes, great pitching beats great hitting. With two studs on the mound I’ll be betting on a scoreless opening frame in tonight’s Midsummer Classic.
MLB All-Star Game same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 0.5 first-inning runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record a hit
William Contreras to record a hit
It’s hard to find betting edges in All-Star games, but let’s make the most of what we’ve got and add Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to get a hit.
Vladdy has the second-longest odds of getting a hit among the starters. He is hitting seventh in the American League lineup, but he is one of only two first basemen on the AL roster, so multiple at-bats for him is likely.
The four-time All-Star is also hitting .322 with a .922 OPS over his last 21 games. Vladdy has also already won an All-Star Game MVP in 2021 when he went 1-3 with a mammoth two-run home run.
Let’s keep that opportunity theme going by closing this same-game parlay out with William Contreras to get a hit as well. Just like the Vladdy situation, there is only one backup catcher on the NL roster and Contreras is batting fifth.
The Brewers catcher was in a bit of a slump in the latter part of the first half, but I like his potential matchups here. After Burnes goes for the AL, Bruce Bochy will likely turn to a trio of southpaws in Tarik Skubal, Cole Ragans, and Garret Crochet.
Conteras is hitting .341 with a .871 OPS when facing left-handed pitching this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
MLB All-Star Game odds
National League vs American League opening odds
- Run line: NL +1.5 | AL -1.5
- Moneyline: NL +105 | AL -114
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
MLB All-Star Game spread and Over/Under analysis
- The American League is the favorite, opening at about the -115 range and now up to -120.
- The AL had won nine All-Star Games in a row before last year but the reason is favored due to the edge it has when it comes to the hitters in the starting lineup.
- The total has opened at 7.5, and that's where it remains as of early Tuesday afternoon.
- As noted, the Under streak is likely baked into this number, but it still may not be low enough. I'll have a play on the full-game Under tonight as well.
MLB All-Star Game trend
The Under is 14-3 in the last 17 All-Star games while the American League has gone 21-4-1 in the last 26 Midsummer Classics. Find more MLB betting trends for National League vs. American League.
MLB All-Star Game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| National League starting pitcher: | Paul Skenes (6-0, 1.90 ERA) |
| American League starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (9-4, 2.43 ERA) |
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
