Josiah Gray and the Washington Nationals will look to win their second game in nine contests tonight as heavy +215 road dogs vs. Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros.
Even without Yordan Alvarez, this is not a good matchup for Gray, who is pitching above his numbers this season and projects to give up the most earned runs of any starting pitcher today, per THE BAT.
Find out how I'm fading Washington's hurler in my Nationals vs. Astros MLB picks and predictions.
Nationals vs Astros odds
Nationals vs Astros predictions
THE BAT projected Josiah Gray to be a 5.19-ERA pitcher this season and to date, he’s pitched well above that number. However, regression might be coming for the career 4.64 ERA pitcher.
Firstly, Gray is missing fewer bats this season and has seen his K rate fall from 23.7% last year to 19.6% this year. He owns a mediocre 25% CSW rate while also struggling slightly more with command, as his walk rate is up nearly 2%.
Additionally, Gray is stranding an absurd 85% of his runner this season, which is impossible to maintain and even harder for a flyball pitcher who isn’t missing a ton of bats.
Most of Gray’s fade markets are showing value, but I’m taking the Under 17.5 outs at -105 at BetRivers and would play it to -135.
THE BAT is projecting 16.6 outs, but Gray has failed to go through more than 16 bats in four straight starts, including against poor offenses like Detroit and Kansas City. He has a 16:15 K/BB ratio over those four outings (19.1 innings) and will struggle even against an offense without Yordan Alvarez, as the Houston Astros don't strike out a lot.
Patrick Corbin lasted just 91 pitches and 15 outs last night vs. Houston, so expect Gray and his unsustainable numbers to see a similar fate.
My best bet: Josiah Gray Under 17.5 outs (-105)
Nationals vs Astros same-game parlay
Gray Under 17.5 outs
Valdez Over 18.5 outs
Valdez Under 6.5 strikeouts
Gray is bound for regression and cannot continue to strand base runners at such a high rate.
This is a great matchup for Framber Valdez, who is an elite groundball pitcher and is facing one of the highest groundball-hitting teams in the Washington Nationals. Because I'm adding his Under strikeouts and Over total outs, I'm getting a very solid multiplier — but I don't think there is such a reliance on the punchout for Valdez to get deep here.
THE BAT is projecting 6.03 strikeouts and 20.09 total outs for the Houston starter. Considering the Nationals have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball, this is a great time to hit the Under Ks and Over outs.
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Nationals vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Patrick Corbin closed as a +215 road dog last night vs. Hunter Brown and the Astros in a 6-1 Houston win. Now Josiah Gray also sits as a +215 road dog with some books opening the line at Washington +200 on the moneyline.
It’s tough to handicap this ML at these prices, but Houston has a better probability of winning tonight with Framber Valdez on the mound than they did last night with Brown.
I’m not running out to add the Houston ML at -260, but do think there is a little room for this to get shorter as Valdez has closed as short as -320 on the road vs. Oakland this season.
The Astros will be without Yordan Alvarez who is out until late June thanks to an oblique injury, but this is still an elite matchup for Valdez vs. a bottom-tier offense in run production and power. Only two other teams hit fewer home runs/9 innings than the Nationals.
Washington has one of the highest groundball rates in all of baseball at 46%, and facing an elite groundball pitcher in Valdez is going to compound those issues. I’m not projecting much offense from the Nats today and neither is the betting market, with the total moving from 8.0 to 7.5.
The Nationals team total Under 3 (-133 at Caesars) is showing some solid value as THE BAT is projecting roughly two earned runs for Valdez over nearly seven innings of work.
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Trend to know
The Under is 5-0-2 in the Nationals’ last seven interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Astros
Nationals vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, AT&T Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Josiah Gray (4-5, 3.00 ERA): Gray comes into tonight with a 3.00 ERA but a 76:33 K/BB ratio over 72 innings, along with an unsustainable 82% left-on-base rate. THE BAT projects the right-hander as a 5.00-plus ERA pitcher this season and if his HR/FB rates and GB% normalize to his career/projected numbers, Gray could be seeing a few more runners cross the plate. Washington is 6-7 SU when Gray starts and THE BAT projects 94 pitches, 16.6 outs, 4.28 strikeouts, and 3.14 earned runs.
Framber Valdez (6-5, 2.36 ERA): Valdez is currently the No. 3 betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young at +650 (bet365). He’s been very consistent allowing more than three runs just once over 13 starts and has one of the better H/9 marks in baseball at 7.4/9. His leash is long and his command (a former big weakness) has been much better this season. He’s one of the best groundball pitchers in baseball and Houston is 7-6 SU when he starts. THE BAT is projecting 106 pitches, 20.1 outs, 6.03 strikeouts, and 2.05 earned runs.
