The San Diego Padres will head to the Big Apple to take on the New York Mets this Friday night as each club looks to start the unofficial second half of the season on the right foot.
The Padres won two of their first three meetings with the Mets at PETCO Park earlier this year by an aggregate of 25-13. Can they keep the momentum going? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs Mets on Friday, July 22.
Padres vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as heavy -172 consensus favorites, and bettors have knocked them down as low as -190 as of Friday morning. The total was unveiled at 6.5 – a rarity in this day and age – and money has come in strong on the Over. Most sites now list the total at seven runs, but some 6.5s with a high vig on the Over can be had if you shop around.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Padres vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 7/22/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Padres vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Friday, July 22, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, SNY
Padres vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Yu Darvish (8-4, 3.41 ERA): Darvish kickstarted a run of six quality starts over his last seven chances on June 7 against the Mets, when he shut them out over seven frames. The exception was a five-run outing over six innings of work against the mighty Dodgers on July 2, where he still recorded 10 strikeouts.
Max Scherzer (6-1, 2.22 ERA): When healthy, Scherzer has been worth every penny the Mets shelled out for him this offseason. Since returning to the rotation following a five-week absence, Scherzer has pitched to a 1.40 ERA over three starts (19 1-3 innings), amassing 31 strikeouts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 1-4 in their last five games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets
Padres vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Max Scherzer and the Mets certainly deserve to be favored at home on Friday night, but this line seems too steep. The value lies with the Padres here.
Yu Darvish will toe the rubber for San Diego in this spot, and he’s certainly capable of matching Scherzer early on. If you take away his five-run outing against the Dodgers on July 2, Darvish has a 1.93 ERA over his last six efforts. That includes his seven innings of shutout baseball against these Mets on June 7.
Darvish has also been able to give his team length in this span, tossing no fewer than seven innings in all but one of those performances.
The Japanese native will square off with a New York offense that was flagging entering the All-Star break, plating 35 runs over its last 10 games. On five occasions, this unit was held to two runs or fewer.
It’s been a rough start to the month of July for two of the Mets’ All-Stars in Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil. The former is batting .203, while the latter is hitting just .188.
The Amazins have also suffered from a lack of production from their catchers and designated hitters in 2022. The Mets are 20th in Wins Above Average at -0.8 at DH, while their catchers rank 28th in Wins Above Average at -1.4.
Trend bettors should note that the Padres are 7-1 in their last eight games following an off day, while the Mets are 2-5 in their last seven games against teams with winning records.
Prediction: Padres moneyline (+161 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
Though we like the Padres to prevail in this spot, we’re not calling for any incredible exploits from their lineup against Scherzer.
“Mad Max” boasts a .180 opponent batting average over his first four starts (25 2-3 innings) at Citi Field as a member of the Mets. San Diego is hitting a collective .102 against him over 170 combined at-bats.
Though Eric Hosmer has been able to figure out Scherzer to some extent — going 15-for-52 (.288) against him with two home runs — teammates like Manny Machado (.170 over 47 at-bats), Trent Grisham (.143 over 14 at-bats), and Jake Cronenworth (0-for-10) haven’t had nearly the same success.
Both Darvish and Scherzer should be able to pitch deep into this one, with fatigue likely not playing a factor fresh off the All-Star break. That should enable Friars skipper Bob Melvin and Mets manager Buck Showalter to stick to their most trusted relief arms in this spot.
The Padres shouldn’t need to build a long bridge to closer Taylor Rogers (26 saves, second in baseball), and Luis Garcia (15 holds, team lead) is the mostly likely candidate to pitch the eighth inning. Tim Hill – who has lowered his ERA from 6.57 to 4.15 following a rough beginning to the campaign – is another solid option, as is Nick Martinez. The latter has a 2.01 ERA in relief (22 1-3 innings) this season.
Meanwhile, the Mets boast one of the most intimidating closers in the majors in All-Star Edwin Diaz (20 saves), who has 75 strikeouts over 37 1-3 innings. Adam Ottavino could be counted on to bridge the gap to him, as he’s lowered his ERA from 6.52 to 2.52 since May 8.
Prediction: Under 7.0 (-112 at FanDuel)
Best bet
This game has the feeling of the beginning of a postseason series with two bonafide starters facing off and two rested bullpens behind them. As a result, runs should be precious.
The trends suggest that the Padres and Mets won’t exceed even this low line, as the Under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last five road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Mets’ last eight games in the same situation.
Even if both offenses were cooking right now, which they’re certainly not, the proper play would be the Under.
Pick: Under 7.0 (-112 at FanDuel)
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