The San Diego Padres are riding a five-game winning streak and will look to keep the good times rolling at Camden Yards against the Baltimore Orioles.
Baltimore is a sizable home favorite, and my Orioles vs. Padres predictions are calling for a solid start from Orioles strikeout artist Grayson Rodriguez in tonight’s series opener.
Check out the best MLB picks for this Friday, July 26 matchup.
Padres vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Grayson Rodriguez 6+ strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Baltimore Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez has fanned six or more batters in seven of his past eight trips to the bump and sports a 12th-ranked 10.22 K/9 and 15th-ranked 27.1 K% among qualified starters. He’s also averaged 98.75 pitches and completed six or more innings in five of the highlighted past eight starts.
Additionally, Rodriguez has regularly traded at a 6.5 and even a 7.5 strikeout total this season, so we’re already grabbing a decreased number. It’s also worth noting that there are 4.5 strikeout totals available, but the vig is astronomically higher.
The San Diego Padres striking out the least in baseball against right-handed arms (18.0%) is the reason why Rodriguez has a lower total again, but I’m still confident in the Over.
Rodriguez is ninth in both swinging-strike percentage (13.9%) and called + swinging-strike percentage (29.9%), in addition to ranking 19th in generating swings on pitches outside the strike zone (34.2%), per FanGraphs.
Finally, I also value that Rodriguez’s K/9 and K% are both higher at Camden Yards, and he’s recorded six or more strikeouts in six of eight home starts this season.
Padres vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles moneyline
Grayson Rodriguez 6+ strikeouts
Padres Under 3.5 runs
In addition to Rodriguez fanning more batters at home, he’s also been sharper with a 3.14 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .227 batting average and .273 BABIP. His respective road marks are 4.42, 1.32, .247 and .331. The Frairs offense hasn’t been as explosive in July, either.
The Padres have averaged 3.76 runs per game this month compared to 4.1 to start the season, and I also value the gap in the available odds for this same-game parlay. FanDuel has this SGP priced at just +257, so we’re landing a healthy positive expected value of 18% with the +320 DraftKings number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Orioles odds
Padres vs Orioles live odds
Padres vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-121) | Baltimore (-1.5) +110
- Moneyline: San Diego +174 | Baltimore -190
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-101) | Under 9 (-111)
Padres vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles are a sizable home favorite across the board, and while there’s been some line movement to the San Diego side at Pinnacle, it’s been minor.
- Pinnacle opened Baltimore -190, and the Orange Birds are trading at -184 as of Friday morning. Additionally, bet365 has returned the Orioles to a -200 favorite after moving to -190 briefly.
- There has been a similar lack of movement to this total, with Pinnacle only a cent off its opening odds on the 9.0 total.
- The 9.0 total has seen more movement to the Under at bet365, with the shop opening at -115/-105 and flipping to -105/-115 as of Friday morning.
Padres vs Orioles trend
Rodriguez has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his past eight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Orioles.
Padres vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Friday, 7-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, MASN |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Adam Mazur (1-3, 7.84 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Grayson Rodriguez (12-4, 3.83 ERA) |
Padres vs Orioles latest injuries
Padres vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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