Padres vs Twins Predictions, Picks, Odds: Quiet Afternoon at Target Field

The Minnesota Twins will try to extend their lead in the AL Central as they host the San Diego Padres for an afternoon showdown on Thursday.

The Padres (19-18) and Twins (20-17) have split the first two games of the series. After the Padres won 6-1 on Tuesday, the Twins rebounded with a 4-3 victory in extra innings on Wednesday to set up today’s rubber match.

Each team will send one of their best pitchers to the hill on Thursday, which should lead to a challenging day for these two lineups, neither of which is scoring a lot of runs this season.

We’ll break down what that means for bettors in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Twins on May 11.

Padres vs Twins odds

Padres vs Twins predictions

San Diego came into 2023 expecting to have a dynamic offense powered by superstar talent. Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts are among the powerhouse names that have been in the lineup since Opening Day, while Fernando Tatis Jr. rejoined the lineup in late April after serving the remainder of an 80-game PED suspension. 

Yet the results just haven’t been there. The San Diego Padres are scoring a paltry 4.16 runs per game, the sixth-worst mark in the majors. And while Tatis initially provided a boost, San Diego is scoring just 4.13 runs per game in May. The team is near the bottom of the league in batting average (.221) and is below average in OPS (.712). While there’s some room for improvement, the offensive output has been a disappointment.

The Padres have been particularly anemic against right-handed pitching, hitting just .213 with a .680 OPS against righties. On Thursday, they’ll have to face a particularly difficult right-hander in the form of Bailey Ober, who has been dominant so far this season for the Minnesota Twins. In his first three starts, Ober has given up just two runs on 10 hits over 18 1/3 innings of work.

That may make it sound like this game sets up for a Minnesota blowout. However, the Twins have had their own offensive struggles this season, scoring just 4.24 runs per game. Minnesota hoped to improve its lineup by signing star shortstop Carlos Correa in the offseason.

However, Correa has disappointed, hitting just .189 with a .643 OPS this season. While Max Kepler and Byron Buxton have supplied some much-needed power in Minnesota, it hasn’t been enough to put much fear in opposing pitchers.

The Padres will be sending a solid pitcher to the mound on Thursday as well. Yu Darvish may not be off to a start that compares with Ober’s incredible numbers, but the 36-year-old has been effective in most of his outings, putting up a 3.19 ERA so far this season. The five-time All-Star is past his prime but still knows how to pitch, even as his strikeout numbers have come down over the last few years.

We have two struggling offenses facing off against a red-hot youngster and a Japanese veteran who is coming off an excellent 2022 season. Runs should be at a premium in this matchup, and yet the total for this game sits at an even 8.

These teams haven’t combined for more than seven runs yet in this series, and I don’t expect them to do so on Thursday. I’m backing the Under.

My best bet: Under 8 (-104 at FanDuel)

Padres vs Twins moneyline analysis

The Padres opened today’s game as a -115 favorite at most sites. That number has lengthened slightly, with -120 now being the most common number on San Diego. By shopping around, you get find odds as good as -115 on the Padres, or +105 on the Twins.

Both teams have been slightly disappointing this season, putting up records around .500 despite higher expectations heading into 2023. As a result, both have disappointed bettors: the Padres have lost more than four units on the moneyline, while the Twins are down more than two bets. 

While I noted above that both teams could struggle offensively on Thursday, the Twins do look to have the advantage. While we can’t be certain that Ober will sustain anything close to his hot start, the Padres have struggled against right-handed pitching all year long, so it’s hard to think that today will be the day Ober comes back down to Earth.

On the other hand, the Twins have positive splits against righties, and while Darvish has been good, he hasn’t been a dominant force on the mound this year.

Despite this, the Twins are getting plus money today while playing at home. Given that the matchup seems a bit tilted in their favor, I’m leaning strongly toward Minnesota on the moneyline this afternoon.

Padres vs Twins Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for today’s game started at 8.5 runs. The public has bet that number down, however, and the consensus total is now a flat 8 runs.

However, the odds on that number are all over the place. You can get as good as -105 on the Over, or -104 on the Under, depending on where you place your bets. 

We’ve already broken down how these teams have struggled to score runs this year, so it might not surprise you to learn that both have played hard to the Under this season. The Under is 23-13-1 in Padres games in 2023 and has also gone 20-14-3 in Twins games.

We have two teams that are struggling to score runs, along with two pitchers that are throwing well so far in 2023. The Padres have played to totals of 8 or fewer in each of their past seven games, while the Twins have put up totals of 7 or fewer in their last five contests.

There’s really no reason to expect these teams to combine for more than eight runs today, and a low-scoring pitching duel is definitely in the cards. I’m strongly backing the Under here and would do so even if the total fell to 7.5 runs.

Padres vs Twins game info

Starting pitchers

Yu Darvish (2-2, 3.19 ERA): While Darvish is entering the later stages of his career, he remains an effective pitcher even at age 36. Coming off a season in which he finished eighth in the NL Cy Young Award race, Darvish is throwing to a solid 1.118 WHIP and 3.50 FIP so far in 2023. Those numbers put him well ahead of the league this year, and his 128 ERA+ shows he’s still a frontline starter. Darvish is coming off a win against the Dodgers in which he allowed just one earned run on four hits over 6 2/3 innings of work.

Bailey Ober (2-0, 0.98 ERA): Ober had been solid in partial seasons of work for the Twins in both 2021 and 2022, but nobody could have expected a start this strong from the 27-year-old in 2023. Ober has yet to allow a home run and is pitching to a 0.873 WHIP, good for a 2.55 FIP. Yet, that can’t be seen as a complete surprise: he put up a 2.92 FIP in 56 innings of work in 2022 as well. Ober last pitched on May 5, when he threw seven innings of shutout ball against the Guardians. 

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Under is 19-7-1 in the Padres’ last 27 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Twins

Weather

Pages related to this topic