The Philadelphia Phillies will look to split their four-game series tonight against the Atlanta Braves after the home side has taken two of the three games so far at Truist Park.
For Philadelphia, the bullpen has been a huge issue in the series while the bats have been consistent. Can Bryce Harper and this loaded offense touch up dominant Atlanta starter Kyle Wright?
We also might have to deal with some possible weather issues with rain and lightning potentially delaying or even postponing this game, so bettors need to pay attention to the weather before getting down.
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Braves.
Phillies vs Braves odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Braves opened as -120 favorites on the ML and then moved to a pick ‘em earlier today. This is the longest Atlanta has been in this four-game series as they’ve closed -182, -145, and -150.
The total sits at 8 after closing at 9 yesterday but the weather could play a big factor in run production today.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Phillies vs Braves predictions
Picks made on 5/26/2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Thursday, May 26, 2022
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-Philadelphia, Bally Sports Southeast
Phillies vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Aaron Nola (1-4, 3.96 ERA): Nola is having a typical Nola season: high strikeouts, low walks, and giving up a ton of long balls. The Phillies have not given him much support, either, as Philly is 1-8 SU across his nine starts this season. He’s given up 11 runs over his last 17 innings and is coming off a start where he allowed two homers to the Dodgers.
Kyle Wright (4-2, 2.49 ERA): The 26-year-old former first-rounder has made eight starts on the season, gone at least five innings in all but one of those, has allowed one or fewer runs in five, and has struck out six or more in five starts. His Baseball Savant page has a lot of red and he is starting to look like a very underrated starter early in his MLB career. Atlanta is 5-3 SU in his eight starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Didi Gregorius SS (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Doubtful), Tyler Matzek RP (Out), Eddie Rosario OF (Out), Kirby Yates RP (Out), Luke Jackson RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Braves are 41-20 in the last 61 meetings in Atlanta. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves
Phillies vs Braves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The first thing to know here is that rain and lightning are a possibility so delays could make this a very unconventional game. This is not a game you want to over-expose yourself as a bettor and take on much risk. But in saying that, over the last three days, the game-time weather has improved as the day has gone on. Check the local reports before putting down some action.
The two NL East rivals will finish up a four-game set tonight at Truist park as the Braves have won two straight and will look to take the series. Tonight’s finale sits at a pick ‘em, which is the longest the Braves have been in this series.
Aaron Nola may be pushing this line towards the visitors, but Kyle Wright has been the better starter this year and we’re scratching our heads as to why the Braves aren’t more heavily favored after exposing the Philadelphia bullpen and defense in back-to-back games.
Nola enters his 10th start with a 3.96 ERA while allowing 10 runs over his last three starts (17-plus innings). Only four other pitchers in baseball have allowed more home runs (nine) than the Philly starter and although his K% is in the Top-15 percent of the league, he consistently gets barreled up when he misses. He does have good numbers in his career vs. the Braves (12-8, 3.32 ERA), but Atlanta hit him hard in five starts last year, including six total home runs and 15 total runs in 30-plus innings. He’s 1-4 on the season but the Phillies have won just one of his nine starts.
Nola has no issues getting 18 outs as he has great BB% numbers, but even three innings are enough for Atlanta to get to the visiting bullpen. The Phillies’ relievers have thrown nine innings over the last three days and have given up 17 hits and eight total runs. Philadelphia might have some familiar names in the pen, but this is a unit we have found to be tough to back in full-game markets.
Defensively, the Phillies are struggling as well. They've committed an error in each game of the series and rank second-last in defensive runs saved (DRS) at -25 on the season. They’re also missing Didi Gregorius at shortstop.
Yes, the Philly lineup is intimidating, but Nick Castellanos is hitting just .216 over the last month and Kyle Schwarber is not seeing the ball well at all and is hitting .197 on the year. This lineup will face Atlanta’s Kyle Wright, who might not be getting enough respect from the bookmakers.
Wright throws five pitches and currently ranks as one of the best all-around pitchers on Baseball Savant. He sits in the Top-25 percent in whiff percentage, velocity, strikeout rate, and hard-hit percentage. On the season, he’s allowed just 13 runs over 30-plus innings and six of those came in one start.
Do you have time to talk about the filth factory known as Kyle Wright? pic.twitter.com/r8pQ18ANnT
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) April 16, 2022
Wright has gone six or more innings in four of his eight starts this season but gets to hand things over to a bullpen that has found some consistency in this series and has saved some of its better arms for tonight. Atlanta got 4 2-3 scoreless innings out of Spencer Strider and Collin McHugh in last night’s 8-4 win. In the series, the Atlanta bullpen has thrown 14 innings and has allowed just five runs on 13 hits.
Wright and the pen will be supported by a Braves offense that is slashing .365/.414/.529 in the series and has scored 17 runs over the three games. Eight of the nine starters recorded a hit yesterday and Dansby Swanson is coming off a four-hit game. Ronald Acuna Jr. is unlikely to play tonight but the lineup looked just fine without him last night.
Even if the weather delays this game, we’re more comfortable taking the home side at -110 knowing it has the edge in the bullpen.
Prediction: Braves moneyline (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The Over has hit in each of the three games in this series and tonight’s total of 8 might be appetizing, but lightning and rain could make this a hard total to play tonight.
If the conditions were normal, we’d love to hit the Over as Atlanta is the best home Over team (16-6-2 O/U) while the Phillies are the best Over road team (14-6 O/U) in baseball. Atlanta likes to hit bombs and score runs at home but this weather is certainly baked into tonight’s total.
If there were any delays, it would favor the Over as the starters may have brief appearances or have their starts delayed. The only reason this total is at 8 is due to the pitching matchup and the weather. If either team gets into the bullpen early, we could easily see another double-digit scoring game.
The forecast does not look great, however. Tuesday’s game forecasted rain but that blew over. Tonight, we’re seeing lightning from 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. and rain from 11 p.m. onward.
If you must make a wager on the total on tonight’s game, the Over is the right play but there are a ton of unpredictable variables here at play.
Prediction: Over 8 (-105 at bet365)
Best bet
With the weather a major factor and the game possibly being postponed, the best bet tonight might just be to wait until game time and see if the weather blows over.
If the game were to be delayed, we’d have no issues hitting the home side as the Philly bullpen has been awful in this series and would likely be leaned upon again tonight.
The Braves are absolutely crushing the visiting pitching so far in the series and have an OPS of .943. The Atlanta pen is fresh after using just two long relievers yesterday and even with Acuna likely out, this lineup had no issues stacking runs without him last night.
This is also the best price we’ve seen on the home side in the series and we don’t think the Nola vs. Wright matchup is worth 30-40 points for the visitors.
Pick: Braves moneyline (-110 at bet365)
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