Phillies vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Milwaukee Gets the Break It Needed

The Philadelphia Phillies will be aiming to get the brooms out as they go for the sweep on Thursday against the Milwaukee Brewers. 

The meeting between the two last night was a blowout, as Philly got offense early and often, blanking the Brewers 10-0. The win was the Phillies’ sixth straight since firing manager Joe Girardi, improving to 27-29 and looking capable of contending for a playoff spot. 

The Brewers now easily have the smallest run differential of any leading divisional side and have seen their once healthy NL Central lead be reduced to a half-game. 

Read our MLB betting picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Brewers to see which side we'll be backing this afternoon. 

Phillies vs Brewers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The odds for this meeting were released this morning. The Brewers became a -165 favorite, with the Phillies returning as +140 underdogs. The number has remained unchanged since then. The total opened up at 7.5 and also has stayed there.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Phillies vs Brewers predictions

• Prediction: Brewers F5 -0.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Brewers TT Over 4 (+100)
• Best bet: SGP - Tellez to hit a HR + Brewers ML (+559)

Picks made on 6/9/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Phillies vs Brewers game info

• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Thursday, June 9, 2022
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Phillies vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Zach Eflin (2-4, 3.88 ERA): Eflin has been one of the best pitchers in the league at inducing soft contact. In addition, he ranks in the Top 3% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate and the Top 10% in exit velocity. Unfortunately, some of these numbers don't line up with the earned runs he's allowed. It does seem like some of that positive regression is starting to come around, though. His last time out against he went five innings and gave up zero earned runs against the Angels. 

Corbin Burnes (3-3, 2.50 ERA): Burnes has one of the best fastballs in the league, which has led to one of the highest strikeout percentages in the majors. Burnes’ great start seems sustainable, as his actual current ERA is almost precisely in-line with his expected ERA. Unfortunately, his last outing against the Padres was a rough one, as he gave up five earned runs over just three innings. Before that start, the most runs he had given up were four through six innings.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Phillies: Zach Wheeler SP (Out), Johan Camargo 3B (Out), Jean Segura SS (Out).
Brewers: Kolton Wong 2B (Out), Mike Brosseau 3B (Out), Omar Narvaez C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in Phillies' last four after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Brewers

Phillies vs Brewers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

This isn't an easy handicap. On the one hand, you have a Milwaukee offense that has struggled mightily over the past few weeks. On the other hand, you have that same team in an excellent bounce-back spot, off back-to-back losses and a shutout. So, I'm going to side with the Brewers today.

Minus the bounce-back spot angle (one that I tend to love throughout the random baseball season), the Brewers have the edge on the mound in two ways. 

Their starting pitcher, Burnes, is set up nicely to sit down the Phillies’ lineup. Burnes has struggled the most this season against the Padres, but it's no consequence they have the lowest swing rate in baseball — their patience forced him into making mistakes. 

He won't have that issue against the Phillies. They don't strike out as much as some but still have baseball's ninth-highest K rate. While this isn't an overwhelming edge, it becomes more compelling when you couple it with a high chase rate and low OPS vs. power pitchers. 

I don't expect Philly to look hapless on the mound, but I'm struggling to see them string enough hits together to get enough runs and win this game.

The second edge is the other side of the coin, Zach Eflin vs. Brewers hitters. I'm a fan of Eflin, however, I think he's typically an undervalued option. Eflin has had a few starts where he's struggled this season, and those opponents have one common theme: They hit the breaking ball effectively. 

Eflin gave up 17 earned runs combined in his three starts against Miami and New York. Both of those teams have their highest OPS when seeing the breaking ball. While the Brewers don't have the OPS those two do against breaking balls, it's still solid at .738.

Like I have for the past few days, I'm going to avoid bullpens here and stick to the first five innings market. This number is priced at -128, which implies about a 58% probability. I'll take the -110 odds that DraftKings is offering and look to capitalize on a pitching mismatch.

Prediction: Brewers first five innings -0.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Again, another tough handicap and one that I'll lean on trends for just as much as anything. 

The most prominent of trends is the Over is 4-0 in the Phillies' last four games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. That says that teams usually do a good job responding after the Phillies slow them down the game before and because of that, I'm going to target the Brewers’ team total. A scary proposition, but one I think has an edge. 

We've already documented why I believe this is a good matchup for the Brewers. They love breaking balls, which feels like Eflin's arsenal, but perhaps the anecdotal part is just as meaningful to the handicap. Milwaukee's offense has been in a freefall. If you can find an edge in a regular-season game, you take it. 

It's a dangerous game to handicap motivation, but you'd have to think the Brewers would have plenty of it today. They are on the verge of getting swept, they've nearly lost their lead in the division, and they just got shut out. 

I like them to be laser-focused today, which should help quite a bit in a pitching matchup they already have an edge in. 

Prediction: Brewers team total Over 4 (+100 at Fanduel)

Best bet

One of this article's primary themes is targeting Eflin's breaking ball. So, now we're going to combine a few thought processes to come up with today’s best bet. 

There was a common theme when the Mets and the Dodgers went yard against Eflin. They all came from hitters that were excelling in hitting the breaking ball. Whether the pitch that resulted in the home run was a breaking ball or not was inconsequential. The point was that they saw Eflin well, forcing him to make difficult pitches. 

Tellez has an excellent chance to do that same thing today. Over 75% of his home runs this season have come against pitchers breaking balls first. His batting average and OPS all go up against them, as well. 

Even more exciting? His expected earned run consistently been the highest on breaking pitches throughout his career — this is where Tellez puts some of his best swings together. 

I'd be shocked if Tellez doesn't have a good day at the plate. I'll look to cover this wager with a base bet. 

My projected price for this is +425, something that's going to hit a ton. The implied probability of it hitting is just under 20%. But the edge we have? It's considerable, one of the best ones of the day, and what we're looking for when sizing up a best bet. 

Give me Tellez to go yard aiding in a Brewers victory.

Pick: Same-Game Parlay - Rowdy Tellez to hit a home run + Brewers moneyline (+559 at Fanduel)

Pages related to this topic