Philadelphia Phillies bettors are jumping for joy in June with the team’s sudden surge pumping out more than seven units of profits during its 11-2 run this month.
Philly takes this show on the road, opening a five-game set against the Washington Nationals on Thursday. Washington has produced contrasting results to its NL East counterparts, stuck on a four-game losing skid with a 2-7 record in its last nine outings.
Here are our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies at Nationals on June 16.
Phillies vs Nationals odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Philadelphia opened as a -210 road favorite on the moneyline and that price has slimmed to -198 with Washington moving 10 cents from +176 to +166. The total hit the board at 9.5 runs (Over -114) and has since slimmed to 9 (Over -118) as of Thursday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Phillies vs Nationals predictions
- Prediction: Phillies -1.5 (-125)
- Prediction: Over 9 (-115)
- Best bet: Phillies F5 run line -0.5 (-150)
Picks made on 6/16/2022 at 10:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Nationals game info
• Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
• Date: Thursday, June 16, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN
Phillies vs Nationals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zack Wheeler (5-3, 2.84 ERA): Wheeler was superb in his first start as a new dad, pitching six scoreless innings and allowing only two hits in Saturday’s win over Arizona after his wife recently gave birth to a healthy baby girl. The right-hander has pitched well after a bad start to the season, going at least six innings in five straight outings and allowing just five earned runs in his last 31 2-3 innings of work. Wheeler has 43 strikeouts to only five walks in that stretch.
Patrick Corbin (3-8, 6.65 ERA): The southpaw is starting to right the ship after a disastrous start to 2022, going 3-1 in his last four starts after failing to pick up a victory in his first nine appearances. Corbin hasn’t been lights-out in those last four showings, benefitting from plenty of run support, but has shown better command. That said, he’s still allowed 17 earned runs over those previous 22 2-3 innings of work.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Jean Segura SS (Out), Nick Maton SS (Out), Johan Camargo 3B (Out).
Nationals: Alcides Escobar 2B (Out), Victor Arano RP (Out), Sean Doolittle RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Phillies are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Washington. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Nationals
Phillies vs Nationals picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
Not only have the Phillies been making bank for moneyline bettors but they’ve also flexed for those laying the run line with a 9-4 mark versus the RL in June. A big part of getting past that spread is scoring runs, which Philadelphia has done this month.
The Phillies are plating more than six runs per game in June while hitting a collective OPS of .876 over the past 13 games. The bats got a little quiet against the Miami Marlins earlier this week, but Philadelphia is facing a struggling veteran in Corbin who has been bailed out by the Nats bats in his recent trips to the mound.
Washington has amassed only 12 total runs during this current four-game slide and catches Wheeler really finding his form. The Phillies righty has watched his K rate spike in recent outings, fanning at least seven batters in eight straight starts. What’s more, Wheeler has pitched at least six innings over his last five appearances, which is worth its weight in gold considering how inconsistent the Philadelphia bullpen has been.
Even before this current hot streak, the Phillies played their best baseball on the road, boasting a 16-11 run line record as a visitor. Given the trajectory of these two divisional rivals and the mismatch on the mound, we’ll pass on the near -200 price on the Phillies’ moneyline and lay -1.5 runs at the shorter vig.
Prediction: Phillies -1.5 (-125 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
As mentioned, Philadelphia has been scoring at a solid rate during this run and has gone Over the total in nine of those 13 games. The Phillies offense performed better in foreign venues before this streak, sitting second in runs per game on the road in the majors (5.37).
Corbin has allowed seven or more hits in each of his last four starts, and while he’s gotten a better grip on walks allowed, he’s still seeing his pitch counts climb, tossing totals of 103, 91, and 106 over his last three trips to the bump.
The Phillies own an on-base percentage of .331 versus left-handers (fourth-best in the NL) and boast the best OBP in June (.356). Philadelphia also owns an OPS of .746 over the past two weeks and, according to Inside Edge, Corbin has allowed an OPS of .858 in that same span, which ranks third-worst among starters.
These National League East foes have been a boon for Over bettors in recent meetings, topping the total in eight straight matchups. Funny enough, however, this is their first series of the season.
Prediction: Over 9 (-115 at bet365)
Best bet
As with any bet involving the Phillies, you have a sour taste in your mouth knowing the bullpen could blow up a perfectly capped game once the starter takes a seat.
Instead of sweating those final few innings, we’re going to put the focus on the first five and jump on Wheeler's hot arm and a Philly lineup doing damage early on.
The Phillies have plated 2.7 runs in the opening five frames during this hot streak and average 2.89 runs in the first five on the road this season. As for Wheeler, he’s mowed through opposing lineups in his first and second time through the order, limiting those bats to respective BAs of .247 and .172.
Washington, on the other hand, is giving up nearly four runs in those first five innings the past two weeks and sits dead last in the bigs with 3.68 runs allowed in the opening five frames on the year.
Pick: Phillies first five innings run line -0.5 (-150 at DraftKings)
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