Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Philadelphia Phillies face the Boston Red Sox in MLB action tonight at Fenway. 

Philadelphia took the opener in this three-game set with a 4-1 victory last night, and my Phillies vs. Red Sox predictions expect Cristopher Sanchez to keep Boston's bats in check again. Here are my MLB picks for this June 12 tilt.

Phillies vs Red Sox prediction

My best bet
Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 earned runs (-145 at bet365)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies are sending young LHP Cristopher Sanchez to the mound, who cracked the rotation last year and finished with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 99 1/3 innings. He's been even better this season, pitching to a 2.71 ERA through 12 starts.

Sanchez doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he forces a ton of ground balls and ranks in the Top 30th percentile in barrel rate. Opposing batters are slugging just .336 against Sanchez this year, with an expected slugging percentage of .363.

The Boston Red Sox are seventh in the majors in slugging (.406) but that number drops to just .371 against southpaws. They've also had a tough time generating runs at home where they plate just 3.94 per game. 

The O/U on Sanchez's earned runs today is set at 2.5 which he has gone below in eight of his last 10 starts. Matter of fact, in seven of those outings he allowed one earned run or fewer.

Phillies vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)

Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 earned runs

Nick Pivetta Over 6.5 strikeouts

Garrett Stubbs batter strikeouts Over 0.5

+320 at bet365

The Red Sox are starting Nick Pivetta who has pitched to a 3.40 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP through eight starts. Pivetta is coming off a terrific performance against the Braves where he allowed just one hit and fanned nine batters across seven innings of shutout ball. He's racked up eight or more punchouts in four of his last five starts and ranks in the Top 10th percentile in strikeout rate since the start of last season. 

The Phillies suffered a blow with catcher J.T. Realmuto undergoing knee surgery today. With the three-time All-Star out of the lineup for at least a month, Garrett Stubbs will be Philadelphia's main man behind the plate.

Stubbs is batting just .179 and has struck out 15 times in 56 at bats this year. His strikeout rate is 23.9% over the last three years and there's a good chance he gets mowed down by Pivetta or Boston's bullpen tonight.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Phillies vs Red Sox odds

Phillies vs Red Sox live odds

Phillies vs Red Sox opening odds

• Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+140) | Boston +1.5 (-165)
• Moneyline: Philadelphia -125 | Boston +105
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

Phillies vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have the best record in the majors at 46-20.
• The Red Sox are 33-34 and have gone just 14-19 at home.
• The Red Sox are ninth in the majors in OPS (.720) but they have subpar batting analytics and rank just 21st in xwOBA (.308). 
• The Phillies are fourth in the majors in OPS (.741) and fifth in xwOBA (.334).

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Phillies vs Red Sox trend

The Red Sox have hit the team total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.80 Units / 38% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Red Sox

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