Monday’s matchup offers plenty of value on the home favorite.
The Yankees’ season is off and running with two wins in three tries against the San Francisco Giants. Now the task will be preventing the Philadelphia Phillies from winning their first game of the season.
Will Nestor Cortes pick right back up where he left off? Will Taijuan Walker continue to struggle against the Yanks?
Let’s break down Phillies vs. Yankees in our free MLB picks and predictions.
Phillies vs Yankees odds
Phillies vs Yankees predictions
The New York Yankees know Taijuan Walker quite well. He surrendered 14 baserunners over 11 innings as a member of the New York Mets against them in 2022, allowing three homers. While his game-level results weren’t the worst, he gave up a lot of loud contact and struggled to put the Yankees away.
That’s consistent with the pitcher he’s been over the last few years. His expected ERA came in decidedly above his real-life ERA as a result of far too many hard-hit balls and not nearly enough strikeouts. He did improve slightly last season, but his numbers are still nowhere near good, and the Yankees don't seem to struggle hitting him.
Which is why I love the Yankees in this spot. Nestor Cortes was one of the best pitchers in the American League last season, and the Philadelphia Phillies’ offense has yet to really get going. Their situational hitting has been poor, which would indicate they’re a candidate for some positive regression. But they did really sputter against a lefty last night, and Cortes is even better.
Back New York’s offense to keep rolling, and perhaps add to its league-leading total of seven home runs.
My best bet: Yankees first five -0.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
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Phillies vs Yankees moneyline analysis
The Yankees are correctly priced here. There needs to be a bit of skepticism built into the line considering the Phillies have posted nine hits in each of their first three games, and Cortes pitched very sparingly during spring training. On top of that the Phillies do, in theory, possess the tools to hit left-handed pitching, though the loss of Rhys Hoskins is an absolute killer.
It’s no surprise that 88% of the moneyline tickets are on the Yankees. In an effort to fade the public, it’s encouraging (or perhaps normal) to see 77% of the handle on them over at DraftKings.
I’d much rather back the Yankees at a cheaper price by taking some sort of run line. The first five makes sense to back Cortes and fade Walker, and the full-game run line offers some value because the two outcomes here are likely a Yankees blowout or a loss. I don’t see a close game either way.
Phillies vs Yankees Over/Under analysis
The Over is a solid bet, as the range of outcomes for this game isn’t very large.
Cortes struggled over 11 innings this spring, and Walker was even worse with an ERA of nearly eight runs. Additionally, the Yankees’ lefty pulled out of the World Baseball Classic with an injury, so we might not get a Cortes who's firing on all cylinders.
While the Yankees are slugging the ball, the Phillies have been racking up baserunners despite scoring five runs in their last 22 innings. However, they’re just 3-for-17 hitting with runners in scoring position over their last two games, so there’s reason to buy into this lineup.
Phillies vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, New York City, NY |
| Date: | Monday, April 3, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, YES |
Phillies vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Taijuan Walker (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The right-hander will be debuting for his fourth team at the age of 30. A former top-10 prospect, Walker has never realized his potential at the major-league level, but he did improve his walk rate and barrel rate in 2022. Still, it’s hard to get excited about a guy with a 4.20 career ERA and a 7.71 ERA in 9 1/3 innings this spring.
Nestor Cortes Jr. (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The lefty was one of the best MLB pitchers in 2022, ranking inside the top 10% of the league in expected ERA and earning a well-deserved spot on the American League All-Star team. His strikeout rate over the past two seasons has sat around 27%, and his walk rate has been two points below league average. He simply does everything well.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Phillies are 1-4 in their last five visits to Yankee Stadium. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Yankees
