Fresh off a four-game series sweep over the Reds in Cincinnati, the Pittsburgh Pirates are hotter than fish grease in an otherwise lost season.
The New York Mets are riding the struggle bus, were swept at home by the Cubs, blew their 5.5-game NL East lead, and will look to get things right behind veteran hurler Carlos “Cookie” Carrasco.
Can the Mets turn things around in Game 1 of a four-game set? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the Pirates vs. Mets on September 15.
Pirates vs Mets best odds
Pirates vs Mets picks and predictions
The Mets are struggling and desperately need to win a game. They’ve blown a 5.5-game lead in the NL East and, thanks to last night's loss to the Cubs, are neck and neck with the Braves. NY should get a solid victory Thursday, as the Mets are 10-2 over Carlos Carrasco’s past 12 home contests in 2022 when pitching as the favorite.
Carrasco dominates with his four-seam heater, a slider, and viscious changeup, whiffing 8.77 batters per nine frames. He’s up against a Pirates offense with the league's fourth-highest strikeout rate. That bodes well for Carrasco and not so much for the Pirates.
The veteran hurler faces a recently booming Pirates offense coming off a four-game sweep over the Reds in Cincinnati, where they scored 21 runs. That much production is abnormal for Pittsburgh. The Bucs' 2022 slash line of .221/.291/.361 against righties is more representative of who they really are and is another reason to back Carrasco and the Mets.
JT Brubaker makes his money striking out hitters, and the 28-year-old righty strikes out 10 per nine away from PNC Park, up from his general K/9 of 9.11 this season. Those are heady numbers, but the Mets have the second-lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handers, so those free outs Brubaker usually enjoys may not be there.
New York slashes .266/.335/.419/.754 vs. right-handed pitchers, with a 117 wRC+ that ranks second in MLB while ranking seventh in runs scored vs. RHP. The sample size is just 42 at-bats, but current Mets batters have slashed a solid .262/.404/.524 against Brubaker.
When it comes down to bullpens, New York is the superior of the two with the 10th-best team ERA and closer Edwin Diaz with a 17.18 K/9 is one of the best in the business. Conversely, Pittsburgh and its 4.64 team ERA is fourth worst in the show, and New York should be able to cover if need be against these Pirates arms.
Finally, we have a Mets side going 10-2 with Carrasco on the hill as a favorite facing a pitcher they should light up like a Christmas tree. Back the Mets on the run line with me.
My best bet: Mets run line -1.5 (-115 at PointsBet)
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Pirates vs Mets betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The juice is much too high for me to back the Mets, but New York should win this game by at least two runs.
New York offers Carrasco an average of 5.28 runs of support per start, and without Brubaker getting the high number of Ks he normally enjoys, the Mets should be able to crack the Brubaker code and reach their five-run average.
New York has a season mark of 46-25 at Citi Field and 43-20 when listed as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is 27-45 away from PNC Park and 25-44 as road underdogs.
Finally, the Mets are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 35-17 in their last 52 home games. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 6-21 over their last 27 vs the NL East and 17-38 over their last 55 games overall.
Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 7.5 runs but has been bet up to 8.0 and that number is too high.
Carrasco is dynamite at home, N.Y. scores just over five runs per game when he pitches, and the Mets usually win. New York's offense is struggling of late, and I don’t see them either scoring or needing to score five runs to cover the RL to stay Under the total.
Carrasco knows the Mets need a big game from him, and he’ll deliver a high number of strikeouts against a Bucs offense that has gone down on strikes more often than every MLB team not named the Los Angeles Angels.
Furthermore, the Under is 8-5-0 when Brubaker pitches as the away underdog, and the Under is 4-1 in Mets' last five home games vs. a right-handed starter. This one should stay under the total.
Pirates vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Thursday, September 15, 2022
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Starting pitchers
JT Brubaker (3-11, 4.36 ERA): Brubaker takes the hill for Pittsburgh, and the righty has given up 13 earned runs with 29 strikeouts over his last 34 frames. Brubaker posts an average 4.41 xERA with a 3.87 xFIP. His even better away 3.56 xFIP suggests Brubaker is better than his record.
Carlos Carrasco (14-6, 3.80 ERA): Cookie is expected to toe the slab, and he’s allowed 10 earned runs with 31 punchouts over his previous 23 1-3 innings. Carrasco has a decent 4.17 xERA with an even better 3.47 xFIP and his 3.52 xFIP at home means we have a very consistent pitcher on the hill.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
Mets are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Mets
