It’s a light day of action on the diamond with just six games on the MLB odds board, but there is still plenty of baseball betting value to be found, particularly in the player prop markets.
Today, I highlight a trio of batter props for some of the most exciting players in the game, including the Pittsburgh Pirates' Oneil Cruz and of course, the incomparable Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Here are my MLB picks for Thursday, May 16.
MLB props for May 15
- Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+120 at DraftKings)
- Tucker Over 0.5 RBI (+160 at bet365)
- Ohtani Over 0.5 RBI (+145 at bet365)
Picks made on 5-16 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Prop bet #1: Cruz line stands out
Oneil Cruz’s ascension is happening right before our eyes. While the Pittsburgh Pirates’ phenom just saw his eight-game hitting streak come to an end, I’m betting he stays locked in when he digs into the batter’s box against Justin Steele and the Chicago Cubs on Thursday night.
Cruz is one of baseball’s most exciting young players, and he’s shown why recently. The Pirates' towering shortstop did it all during this recent hitting streak, going 13-for-31 with five doubles, three home runs, and eight runs batted in. That’s good for a .419 batting average and a 1.326 OPS. Cruz also scored eight runs during that stretch.
Now, left-handed pitchers have given Cruz some problems this season, but that hasn’t been the case with Steele. For whatever reason, the Bucs slugger sees the ball well out of Steele’s hand and has a double and a dinger in five career at-bats.
It has also been a bit of a tough start to the season for Steele. The Cubs’ southpaw was dealing with a hamstring injury that cost him a month of action and is pitching to a 4.21 expected ERA while surrendering a .261 opponent expected batting average over his three starts. Those rank in the 39th and 30th percentile, respectively, among MLB starters.
Steele also hasn’t been pitching too deep into games so far, with 4 2/3 innings being his longest outing to this point. That could mean extended innings for a Cubs bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA and 19th in xFIP.
Cruz’s Hits + Runs + RBI prop is on the board at 1.5 with the Over at +120. Before yesterday’s 0-for-3 performance, Cruz was averaging 3.6 Hits + Runs + RBI during his eight-game hitting streak, totaling five in a matchup against Steele back on May 11.
Oneil Cruz prop: Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+120 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Tuck' and run
For my money (literally), Kyle Tucker has been the best hitter in baseball not named Shohei Ohtani for more than a month now. The Houston Astros All-Star came up just short for us yesterday but we’re going back to the well as they close out their series with the Oakland Athletics.
After going 1-for-3 with a double last night, Tucker is now hitting .302 with a 1.180 OPS, which includes 11 homers and 22 runs batted in over a 28-game stretch.
Tonight, the Astros’ slugger will dig into the batter’s box against A’s pitching prospect Joey Estes. The 22-year-old right-hander is making his second start of the season following a strong debut against the Seattle Mariners last week. Estes limited the M’s to one run on two hits while striking out five over five innings of work.
However, Estes primarily used two pitches in that game (a four-seamer and a slider), and being too predictable against a hitter as good as Tucker is asking for trouble.
Our Covers Prop Projections have Tucker at 0.7 RBI for this matchup, meaning the price tag of +160 makes the Over a good bet once again tonight. Not to mention the fact that Tucker has driven in a run in six of his last nine games.
We’re going to keep rolling with Tucker until he starts showing signs of slowing down. Right now, that is nowhere in sight.
Kyle Tucker prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+160 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Sho' goes on
Speaking of Shohei Ohtani, we’re also going to look at an RBI prop for the Japanese megastar too. The Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter is already having a monster season and he’ll have a great chance to keep raking in tonight’s game against the Cincinnati Reds.
Ohtani isn’t pitching in 2024 but he’s been so good at the dish this season that he’s still among the favorites to win the National League MVP award. The Dodgers’ slugger is hitting .364 with a 1.108 OPS, which are both tops in the big leagues. His 12 dingers lead the NL and his 30 RBI are sixth.
Ohtani and the Dodgers will open a four-game set with the Reds tonight. Cincinnati will use Brent Suter as an opener in this matchup before handing the ball to Nick Martinez for the bulk of the innings.
The Reds are hoping the lefty Suter can neutralize Ohtani and Freddie Freeman at the top of the Dodgers’ batting order. The thing is, Ohtani has eye-popping splits against right-handers but his numbers against lefties aren’t too shabby either. He’s hitting .304 with a .840 OPS vs. southpaws this season.
Meanwhile, Martinez ranks in the 57th percentile in expected ERA and the 16th percentile in opponent expected batting average. Ohtani is hitting .404 with an insane 1.282 OPS vs. righties this season.
Our Covers Prop Projections have Ohtani at 0.8 RBI so I’m happy to grab the Over at +145.
Shohei Ohtani prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+145 at bet365)
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