MLB Player Props for 7-11: Best Bets for James McCann, Luis Castillo, and Christian Walker

Prop bet #1: Lame James

The Baltimore Orioles must be happy that everyone is talking about how the New York Yankees are fumbling the bag in the AL East, because things aren’t all sunshine and roses for them either. 

Despite the Yankees going 6-16 in their last 22 games, they still only trail the O’s by two games in the division. Baltimore is just 4-5 in its last nine, plating 3.3 runs per game over that stretch, and busting out of that slump won’t be easy against Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele.

Steele has been one of the NL’s best starters this season. The lefty is pitching to a 2.98 expected ERA and limiting opponents to a .227 expected batting average. He’s also coming off one of the best starts of his career, pitching a complete game against the Los Angeles Angels where he held them to one run on two hits.

So, with that in mind, my MLB picks are backing an O’s player to go 0-fer at the dish tonight, and that guy is James McCann. 

The veteran catcher is projected to hit ninth in the Orioles lineup tonight, getting the start against a lefty. The problem is McCann is struggling vs. southpaws this season, hitting just .197 with a .567 OPS.

McCann also has pinch-hit potential, something the Orioles have done five times in his last 12 games started. With a very good chance at just three at-bats and a tough matchup, I like the odds McCann goes hitless tonight.

James McCann prop: Under 0.5 hits (+135 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Thrill of victory

The Seattle Mariners are a -170 moneyline favorite against the Los Angeles Angels tonight. They are handing the ball to ace Luis Castillo, who is projected to pitch at least six innings tonight, and we can get him to record a win at +110.  Simply put, this is a bet I’m going to make 10 times out of 10. 

Castillo has been solid this season, pitching to a 3.90 expected ERA and striking out 24.3% of batters faced. While he was in a bit of a funk in June, he looked like his old self the last time out. The right-hander made easy work of the Toronto Blue Jays, limiting them to one run on two hits while striking out eight over 6 2/3 innings of work. 

Tonight, he gets another matchup he can dominate. 

For starters, the Angels do not handle right-handed pitchers well, ranking 21st in batting average, 23rd in OPS, and 25th in wRC+. Handling Castillo has been an even bigger problem.

Current Angels batters have combined for a .197 expected batting average and a .374 expected slugging while striking out 31.4% of the time when facing Castillo. We saw that at work in their last meeting when Castillo blanked L.A. over seven innings on just two hits while striking out six back on June 2.

With the Angels countering Castillo with Jack Kochanowicz, a 23-year-old left-hander making his MLB debut who was pitching to a 4.55 ERA at Double-A Rocket City (shoutout to the Trash Pandas) before getting called up, I love the M’s ace to get a win tonight.

Luis Castillo prop: To record a win (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Good Christian man

Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker looks like one of the bigger All-Star snubs at this point, but I like him to exact some revenge when he digs into the batter box tonight against Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves.

Walker has been a run-producing machine this season. He enters this game hitting .263 with a .840 OPS, 22 home runs, and 66 runs batted in. Walker is also locked in right now with hits in eight of his last 11 games, good for a .378 batting average and a 1.251 OPS. Additionally, the matchup against Fried isn’t as bad as it looks.

The Braves’ starter has been good, but not great this season. The lefty’s expected ERA of 3.71 is just above league average, while his opponent expected batting average of .255 is in just the 35th percentile. Fried is also coming off a rough outing against the Philadelphia Phillies where he got tuned up for five runs on 11 hits over six innings. 
 
Walker has hit southpaws well all season, getting to them for a .295 average and an .826 OPS while also having solid career numbers against Fried, collecting four hits in 11 at-bats and only striking out twice. That’s good for a .380 xBA and a .493 xSLG. 

I like Walker to have a productive night at the plate and go Over 1.5 total bases, particularly at this price. He’s gone Over this number seven times in the last 11 games.

Christian Walker prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+145 at bet365)