There’s nothing like starting a new week with some winners in the MLB player props market and with 13 games on the schedule, we’ve got too many options.
Don’t worry, I’m here to sort through the MLB odds and give you my favorite MLB picks for today, including a tough night at the dish for Josh Naylor against hot stove mainstay Tarik Skubal, and Hunter Greene to mow down some Braves hitters.
MLB props for July 22
- Arozarena Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)
- Naylor Under 0.5 hits (+175 at bet365)
- Greene Over 6.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 total bases
It was about as bad a start to the season as you could imagine for Randy Arozarena. The Tampa Bay Rays star outfielder was still hitting below the Mendoza Line at the beginning of July. However, he's busting out of that slump in a big way. He’s hitting .305 with a .984 OPS and seven home runs over 29 games since June 14 and he came out of the All-Star break tearing the cover off the ball.
The Rays slugger has opened the second half by going 6-13 (.462), including two doubles and three dingers, and I love his chances to keep that going this afternoon as the Rays close out their series with the New York Yankees.
That is in part because the Yankees hand the ball to Carlos Rodon. It has been an up-and-down year for the Yankees left-hander. His 4.47 expected ERA ranks in the 26th percentile among MLB pitchers and he entered the break in a slump, pitching to a .967 ERA while surrendering a 1.066 OPS over his last six starts.
Rodon won’t be happy to see Arozarena either. Randy is 3-7 in his career vs. Rodon with a double and a dinger, good for a .616 expected slugging percentage. And while Arozarena was battling a slump for much of the first half, lefties weren’t the problem as he still tagged southpaws for a .908 OPS.
I’ll take Randy to go Over 1.5 total bases in this matchup and the solid plus-money signifies there's still some value here.
Randy Arozarena prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Josh Naylor Under 0.5 hits
I still think the idea of trading Tarik Skubal is a crazy one. He’s currently the betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young, he looks to just be hitting his prime, and if I’m the Detroit Tigers, I’m not trading Tarik Skubal unless I’m getting a massive haul. A Jackson Holliday-plus-others type of haul.
Like it or not Tigers fans, Skubal’s name is on the hot stove as it’s been reported that Tigers scouts have been spending time watching the Norfolk Tide — Baltimore’s Triple-A team — and tonight’s matchup against the Cleveland Guardians could be the last for Skubal in a Tigers uniform.
Either way, I’m expecting it to be a good one. Skubal ranks in the 89th percentile or better in expected ERA (2.70), opponent expected batting average (.208), and strikeout rate (30.8%). And I’m betting it will be a particularly tough night for Josh Naylor.
The Guardians first baseman looks like he’s still on break, as he's 0-9 with three strikeouts since the All-Star Game and he won’t be happy to see Skubal. Not only is Naylor hitting just .220 vs. left-handed pitching this season, he's 0-5 with two strikeouts in his career against the Tigers southpaw. At +175, it’s worth taking a shot on his hitless streak continuing in a tough matchup.
Josh Naylor prop: Under 0.5 hits (+175 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Hunter Greene Over 6.5 strikeouts
While Hunter Greene’s All-Star debut probably didn't go the way he had wanted, there is no denying that the Cincinnati Reds hurler earned that spot.
Greene entered the break with a 3.90 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .194 expected ERA, striking out 27.6% of the batters he’s faced. Those numbers rank in the 85th, 95th, and 82nd percentiles, respectively, among MLB pitchers.
He was also dealing heading into the break, pitching to a 2.57 ERA and holding opponents to a .184 batting average while striking out 37 batters over his last five starts. I like him to continue that strong pitching in his second-half debut against the Atlanta Braves.
The Braves are 54-44 and likely locked into a Wild Card spot in a subpar National League this season, but this is not the team that has dominated the NL the last couple of seasons. That’s partly because the injuries are piling up for the Braves, with Ozzie Albies being the latest victim.
That once deep and daunting Braves lineup isn’t as scary anymore and that's meant more strikeouts. Atlanta has the fourth-highest strikeout rate over the last 30 days and the fifth-highest vs. RHP this season.
That’s not a recipe for success against the fireballing Greene, who also has a 30.6% K-rate vs. current Braves hitters. Greene has gone Over 6.5 strikeouts in three of his last five starts and I like him to keep racking up the Ks here tonight.
Hunter Greene prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)
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Today’s MLB games
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