The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to host the Cleveland Guardians in a crucial series between a pair of teams within a win of top spot in their respective leagues.
Guardians starter Matthew Boyd has been excellent since making his season debut last month, but my Guardians vs. Dodgers predictions don’t expect that to continue on the road against Shohei Ohtani & Co.
I’ll dive into why with my MLB picks for Friday, September 6.
Guardians vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Matthew Boyd Under 15.5 outs (-115 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Matthew Boyd has performed very well since joining the Cleveland Guardians rotation. He’s conceded only one run in three of four starts, allowing three to an Aaron Judge-led Yankees lineup in the lone exception.
Although most of his underlying metrics grade out well, there are some indicators a bit of regression could be coming.
Boyd has allowed only a .203 batting average on balls put in play — well below the .280 range most pitchers hover around over a larger body of work. In other terms, balls aren’t finding gaps as often against Boyd as they could, and will moving forward.
Boyd has also posted a groundball rate 10% below the MLB average since debuting. Putting the ball in the dirt is a good way to limit the damage allowed, and that’s one aspect of the game Boyd hasn’t excelled in thus far.
The biggest concern with Boyd is the matchup. The Los Angeles Dodgers are absolutely lethal, particularly against left-handed pitchers.
Despite all the key injuries they’ve dealt with over the course of the season — Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Max Muncy have all missed meaningful time — they rank first in xwOBA and third in OPS vs. lefties.
With Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Smith, and Teoscar Hernandez all healthy, L.A. fields an unmatched level of star power that could get any pitcher into trouble.
As an added bonus, the Guardians were not in action on Thursday and only used three relievers the two games prior to their day off.
The bullpen is very well rested and every single arm in it should be available. That means Cleveland has no reason to push Boyd, who is only a year removed from Tommy John surgery.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Bring Sho home
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 runs (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Shohei Ohtani is a run-scoring machine. He’s recorded at least one run in 56% of his games this season and his numbers are trending upwards.
Ohtani’s crossed home plate in seven of his last 10 and 13 of his last 20. He consistently gets on base, and his ability to steal only makes life easier for the hitters behind to cash him in.
Now that the Dodgers are healthy, they have an abundance of elite players capable of knocking Ohtani in any time he gets on base.
Betts (.303 average, .395 OBP), Freeman (.288 average, .382 OBP), and lefty-crusher Will Smith give the Dodgers three high-end bats behind Ohtani, who could do serious damage to Boyd and the Guardians.
Guardians vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Matthew Boyd Under 15.5 outs
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 runs
Dodgers +4.5
This parlay very nicely correlates with one another. The Dodgers absolutely crush LHP and the Guardians will want to be careful with Boyd’s workload coming off major surgery.
Ohtani is an MVP candidate with a bevy of electric bats behind him. Just one walk or single could well be enough to plate a run — especially with his base-stealing prowess.
The third leg is simple. If Boyd doesn’t last more than five innings and Ohtani scores, the powerhouse Dodgers are very likely to lose by four or fewer. That leg adds a little more to the return and qualifies the parlay for a 30% odds boost on bet365.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Dodgers odds
Guardians vs Dodgers live odds
Guardians vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +130 | Los Angeles -155
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-155) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+102) | Under 9 (-115)
Guardians vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- We have seen next to no movement on the total. The Under of 9.0 opened at -115 at Pinnacle and now sits at -116.
- The moneyline odds have remained fairly stagnant as well. Pinnacle has moved a few cents, with the Dodgers opening at -140 and now sitting at -143.
- L.A. has covered the run line in 16 of its last 25 games at home (+10.20 Units / 35% ROI).
- The Dodgers have hit the game total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+10.70 Units / 23% ROI).
Guardians vs Dodgers trend
Shohei Ohtani has scored a run in six of his past seven games at home, piling up 10 in that span. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Dodgers.
Guardians vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 9-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Great Lakes, SportsNet LA |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Matthew Boyd (1-1, 2.38 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Landon Knack (2-2, 3.00 ERA) |
Guardians vs Dodgers latest injuries
Guardians vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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