The wind is forecasted to be blowing in at Wrigley Field this afternoon, opening the door to bet on the Over with two of the hottest offenses in baseball hitting the field.
Both the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs are scoring runs in bunches, and my Yankees vs. Cubs predictions expect more of the same on September 6. Read all about it in the MLB picks ahead.
Yankees vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 runs (-109 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees respectively rank second and third in wOBA, and second and fourth in on-base percentage. Chicago has averaged 6.5 runs per game during its 16-8 heater, while New York has also put 4.85 per despite a 13-14 slide.
Additionally, both teams are trending to the Over, and we’re landing a decreased total because the wind is forecasted to be blowing in from left field at Wrigley Field with gusts hovering around 20 mph. Still, the Cubbies enter with a 7-2-1 run to the Over, and the Yankees are 7-3.
I also question how effective both starting pitchers will be today.
N.Y. rookie Luis Gil is returning from a back injury, and he’s only thrown 80 pitches across 3 2/3 innings in a rehab start the past two weeks. His 5.84 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 5.09 xFIP,11.8% barrel rate, and 41.7% hard-hit rate across his prior 10 starts are confidence-shattering marks, too.
The Cubbies will send out inexperienced lefty Jordan Wicks, who is also recently returning from injury. The 25-year-old southpaw was sharp against the Washington Nationals in his return to the bigs last time out, but the Yanks have a much tougher lineup stepping up to the dish.
Wicks also only threw 69 pitches last time out, and his career 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 4.15 xFIP are nothing to write home about.
At worst, we’re landing a fair number with his decreased total, and I think the wind is being too heavily priced into the odds, given the question marks surrounding both starting pitchers.
Aaron Judge pick: Breaking the curse
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
Judge has been as good as anyone in the bigs against LHP this season with a .499 wOBA, .426 ISO, and .311 batting average. As noted, Wicks has limited experience pitching at the highest level, and Judge is ripe for a breakout game.
The MLB home run leader is mired in a 6-for-34 slump at the dish with just a pair of doubles and a .552 OPS across his past nine games. The Paw Patrol curse can't last forever.
Yankees vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5 runs
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Jordan Wicks Over 3.5 hits allowed
All three legs of this same-game parlay are correlated, and I’m anticipating New York having a solid afternoon at the dish against Wicks.
While the Yankees have been among the best offensive teams in baseball over the past 30 days, they’ve been incredibly unlucky against left-handed pitchers this season with the third-lowest BABIP in the majors. Their .269 mark against southpaws significantly trails their overall .285 overall mark, and New York also sports a .294 overall mark since the All-Star break.
I’m expecting the Cubs to allow Wicks to pitch as long as he’s effective Friday, which opens the door for the Yankees to pile up hits early or scatter them across a handful of innings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Cubs odds
Yankees vs Cubs live odds
Yankees vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -150 | Chicago +125
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+115) | Chicago +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)
Yankees vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This moneyline has moved in the Chicago direction at both Pinnacle and bet365 since opening, which also aligns with the Cubs' 16-8 record over the past 30 days.
- It’s been a notable adjustment at both shops, too. Pinnacle opened Chicago at +127 and moved to +114 as of Friday morning, while bet365 has gone from an opening Cubs +125 to +110.
- There has also been a sizable move to the Over, with bet365 opening at Over 7.0 -115 and offering Over 7.5 -115 as of Friday morning.
Yankees vs Cubs trend
The Cubs enter with a 7-2-1 run to the Over, and the Yankees are 7-3. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Cubs.
Yankees vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, 9-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Marquee |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (12-6, 3.39 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jordan Wicks (2-2, 3.82 ERA) |
Yankees vs Cubs latest injuries
Yankees vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
