MLB Player Props for 7-24: Best Bets for Luis Castillo, Mitchell Parker, & Teoscar Hernandez

Prop bet #1: Luis, Luis

The Seattle Mariners are a roughly -170 moneyline favorite against the Los Angeles Angels this afternoon. They are handing the ball to ace Luis Castillo, who is projected to pitch at least six innings, and we can get him to record a win at +140. Simply put, this is a bet I’m going to make 10 times out of 10. 

If this sounds like déjà vu, we made this same bet when Castillo took on the Angels in his final start before the All-Star break and he came through for us then, shutting the Halos out over six inning on just four hits while striking out five.

That means Castillo has now pitched 13 scoreless innings against Los Angeles this season while giving up just six hits. The Mariners ace also looks like he’s finding his groove. The right-hander is pitching to a 1.83 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .177 batting average over his last three starts, earning a quality start and win in each.

And it’s not like the Angels handle right-handers well to begin with. Los Angeles ranks 24th in batting average, 25th in OPS, and 26th in wRC+ when facing righties this season. 

Los Angeles counters Castillo with embattled starter Griffin Canning. The righty is pitching to a 4.89 xERA while surrendering a .271 xBA to opponents. Those rank in the 13th and 17th percentile, respectively, among MLB pitchers.

My MLB picks like Castillo to pick up his fourth consecutive win here.

Luis Castillo prop: To record a win (+140 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Mitchell misses the mark

I really like what the Washington Nationals are building and they going to be one of my favorite teams to target as a moneyline underdog in the second half of the season and potentially in futures markets for next year.

They have a great young core with talent both in the field and on the mound. One of those young arms is Mitchell Parker. While the left-hander has been very efficient through his first 17 career starts, he could be hitting a bit of a rookie wall.

Parker has a 7.24 ERA while giving up a .857 OPS over his three starts in July, culminating in the worst start of his career, allowing five runs on three hits and two walks in just two-thirds of an inning back on July 13.

This slump has bumped Parker’s expected ERA up to 4.08 and his opponent expected batting average to .250. Those numbers have Parker just below league average and I don’t love today’s matchup with the San Diego Padres for him.

Now that the Padres have Xander Bogaerts back, this lineup that already leads the majors in expected batting average is much more daunting.

Parker has an outs recorded prop sitting at 16.5. Now, Parker has gone Over this number 10 times in his 17 starts, but suffice to say, he’s been a little lucky because he doesn’t have the leash of a guy who regularly goes over that number. Parker averages just 83.4 pitches per start and has only topped 90 pitches six times. 

I like the Friars to jump on Parker today, resulting in a shorter outing. Plus, our Covers Prop projections have this as a five-star play at this price.

Mitchell Parker prop: Under 16.5 outs (+100 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Teoscar on a tear

It’s been one hell of a month for Teoscar Hernandez. The Los Angeles Dodgers slugger has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since the calendar flipped to July, highlighted by a victory in the Home Run Derby, and I like him to stay hot in tonight’s matchup against the San Francisco Giants. 

Hernandez has hits in all but one game this month, good for a .369 average, a 1.008 OPS, three home runs, and 12 runs batted in. The Derby win doesn’t seem to have screwed up his swing at all either. Hernandez is 8-for-19 (.421) in his first five games since coming out of the break and he gets a juicy matchup tonight.

That’s because the Giants hand the ball to Robbie Ray, who will be making his first start of the season. The 2021 Cy Young Award winner needed Tommy John surgery and hasn’t pitched since March 2023. While his stuff has looked good in the minor leagues, the Dodgers are a different level.

Teo has also smoked southpaws this season. Hernandez owns a .293 average and a .950 OPS vs. left-handed pitching.

Ray will also likely be held to around 80 pitches in his first MLB start in more than a year. That means plenty of innings for a bullpen that has the sixth-highest ERA in the big leagues.

Hernandez is locked in, he’s got a great matchup, and he’s gone Over 1.5 total bases in six of his last seven games and 10 times in 17 games this month. At this price, there is value in him to go Over once again.

Teoscar Hernandez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)