Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Ghost and the Machine

There’s no better way to kick off the weekend than with some winners on the diamond, more specifically in the MLB player props market. And with all 30 teams in action on Friday night, there is no shortage of options.

Today, I bring you a trio of plus-money props. Hitting machine Luis Arraez is getting some crazy value with his total bases prop. Orioles’ shortstop Jorge Mateo will run wild against Mike Clevinger and the Whtie Sox. And finally, Kodai Senga’s famous "Ghost Fork" makes its West Coast debut.

Here are my best MLB player prop bets for Friday, April 14.

MLB props for April 14

• Arraez Over 1.5 total bases
• Mateo Over 0.5 stolen bases
• Senga to record a win

Picks made on 4/14/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

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Prop bet #1: Arraez to the occasion 

Luis Arraez is a machine built in a lab. His only function? To hit baseballs.

The reigning American League batting champ has picked up right where he left off last season, this time around with his new team, the Miami Marlins. Arraez has been locked in at the plate through the first two weeks of the season, and I expect that to continue tonight when he digs into the box to face off against Madison Bumgarner and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arraez is hitting an incredible .500 through his first 46 at-bats of the season. And it seems traditional splits don’t even apply to Arraez anymore. He’s hitting .514 against right-handed pitchers, and .444 against lefties.

And even if there was a southpaw that was going to cool off Arraez, it probably wouldn’t be Bumgarner. I’m always stunned when I remember that MadBum is still just 33 years old, but the lefty is pitching like a starter far his senior. (I tend to believe that Bumgarner sold his baseball soul for that historic performance in the 2014 World Series).

Bumgarner has been rocked in his first two starts of the season. Both outings were against the Dodgers, but he used to pitch well against them, and now he’s surrendered eight runs (seven earned) on nine hits and 10 walks in 8 2/3 innings pitched. And even lefties are getting to him for a .333 average.

I don’t understand the +160 price on Arraez to go Over 1.5 total bases at all, but I’ll happily take it. I mean, he’s only done it 10 times in 13 games. Oh, and he's 2-for-3 with a double in his career vs. Bumgarner.

Luis Arraez Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+160)

Prop bet #2: Steal of a deal

There is no denying that the new rules are working when it comes to stolen bases. We are seeing teams steal an average of 0.69 bases per game in 2023. That’s the highest amount since 1999, and the Baltimore Orioles are one of the teams taking the biggest advantage of the new rules. 

The Orioles lead the MLB in steals with 19 already this season, and Jorge Mateo is responsible for a large chunk of those. The O’s shortstop could run wild tonight when he visits Mike Clevinger and the Chicago White Sox on Friday night.

Mateo has been getting on base with regularity so far this season (.350 on-base percentage), and he has made the most of his opportunities on the base paths, leading the Orioles with seven steals. 

Tonight, his matchup against Clevinger is good for another swiped bag or two for a few reasons. First, Clevinger is getting hit. A lot. The right-hander has an opponent expected batting average of .323 through two starts. And second, Clevinger has always been somewhat slow to the plate. Opponents are taking advantage this year, having already stolen four bases against him in two starts.

Mateo has a great opportunity to steal his eighth base of the season tonight, and while stolen base prop odds have definitely been nerfed by sportsbooks this season, at +210 there is still some value here.

Jorge Mateo Prop: Over 0.5 stolen bases (+210)

Prop bet #3: Phantom menace

Ghost Fork mania has invaded Queens. Kodai Senga has been all that was advertised and more since making his New York Mets debut. The former NPB star has dominated in his first two MLB starts thanks in part to his now-famous pitch, and Senga will look to keep dealing when he takes the ball tonight against the Oakland Athletics.

The Ghost Fork is a devastating offspeed pitch that drops so much it looks to disappear at times. Hence, “Ghost.” And when mixed with his 97 mph fastball, staying on top of Senga has been incredibly difficult for hitters. Just look at this ridiculousness.

Kodai Senga, 97mph Fastball and 84mph Ghost Fork, Overlay.

Good look at the drop on it. pic.twitter.com/gLvM5pMuXU

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2023

Like, what are you supposed to do with that? Not much apparently. The right-hander has given up just two earned runs on six hits while striking out 14 in 11 1/3 innings of work. Tonight, he faces an A’s team that has just three wins this season and ranks 21st in strikeout rate, 24th in batting average, and 25th in OPS when facing right-handed pitching.

The A’s counter Senga with James Kaprielian, and things have not gone as smoothly for the right-hander. Kaprielian has been lit up in two starts, surrendering 12 runs on 14 hits in 9 2/3 innings pitched over his first two starts.

Now, the Mets have gotten off to a cold start at the plate overall, but maybe a meeting with Kaprielian is just what they need to jump-start the offense. And they’ve plated five or more runs in five of their last seven games. New York should support Senga enough to help him earn the win in this one.

Kodai Senga Prop: To record a win (+105)

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