We've got a stacked Saturday of baseball with 15 games on the MLB odds board as teams gear up for the All-Star break. That gives us plenty of MLB player props to consider and today I'm focusing on a trio of pitchers.
Find out why I'm backing Reid Detmers and fading David Peterson and Sonny Gray with my best free MLB prop picks and predictions for July 8.
MLB props for July 8
- Gray Over 1.5 walks
- Detmers Over 4.5 strikeouts
- Peterson Over 2.5 earned runs
Picks made on July 8 at 11 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Not a Gray area
The Minnesota Twins are sending Sonny Gray to the hill against the Baltimore Orioles today. Gray has been up-and-down this season and while he has a sparkling 2.50 ERA through 17 starts, his expected ERA is much higher at 3.77.
Gray is actually fresh off a stellar outing against the Orioles on Sunday when he held them to just two hits across six innings of shutout ball. However, he walked three batters in that contest and control has been a long-term issue for him.
Gray's walk rate of 9.2% ranks in the Bottom 40th percentile of all pitchers and is almost identical to his 9.3% walk rate over the previous six years. The O's are 12th in the majors in walk rate (8.8%) and have shown patience at the plate this season despite having a younger lineup.
The O/U on Gray's walks issued is set at 1.5, a number he has eclipsed in four of his last five outings and in 12 of 17 starts over the entire season.
Sonny Gray prop: Over 1.5 walks (-110)
Prop bet #2: Always pay your Detmers
It's the battle for Los Angeles with the Dodgers hosting the Angels on Saturday night. The Halos are sending Reid Detmers to the mound and he has a 3.72 ERA across 15 starts while ranking in the Top 15th percentile in barrel rate and strikeout rate.
The southpaw has been red-hot lately, pitching to a 1.42 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and .138 OBA over his last five starts. Detmers has fanned at least eight batters in all five of those outings and is coming off a nine-strikeout performance against a Diamondbacks lineup that strikes out at the third-lowest rate in the majors.
The Dodgers have one of the most potent lineups in the bigs but they don't do a great job of making contact. In fact, they rank a middling 16th in the majors in strikeout rate (22.8%) with that number ticking up to 23.6% against lefties like Detmers.
In fact, when they faced off against Detmers last month he held them to just a pair of hits across seven innings of shutout ball while racking up eight punchouts. The O/U on Detmers' strikeouts total today looks way too low considering his recent play.
Reid Detmers prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-135 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Padres pummel Peterson
New York Mets southpaw David Peterson was demoted to the minors in May after posting an 8.08 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP through his first eight starts. Despite an ugly 4.86 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP across 37 innings at Triple-A Syracuse, he was brought back to the majors a couple of weeks ago.
Surprisingly, Peterson has been sharp since being recalled, allowing just one run in 10 innings across a pair of starts. However, those outings came against the Brewers and Giants and he now faces a stacked San Diego Padres lineup.
San Diego ranks 16th in the majors with an OPS of .725 but that number bumps up to .754 against lefties like Peterson. That middling number also reflects how poorly they were hitting earlier in the year but they've been much better lately, plating 5.15 runs per game with an OPS of .790 over the last 30 days.
Despite his last two quality starts, Peterson still ranks in the Bottom 20th percentile in expected ERA (5.06) and expected batting average (.272). Take the Over 2.5 on his earned runs total tonight.
David Peterson prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-110)
Not intended for use in MA.
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