Choo! Choo! We aren’t getting off this J.D. Martinez total bases prop money train until it comes off the tracks.
Martinez extended his hitting streak to 13 games thanks to swatting a dinger last night vs. the Nationals, and he’ll have a great opportunity to keep swinging a hot stick tonight.
Meanwhile, have you heard what the Braves do to lefties? A’s southpaw JP Sears is the next sacrificial lamb. And the Diamondbacks' Ketel Marte gets a juicy matchup against a familiar foe tonight.
Let’s keep the winners rolling with my favorite MLB player props for Tuesday, May 30.
MLB props for May 30
- Marte Over 2.5 R+H+RBI
- Sears Under 17.5 outs
- Martinez Over 1.5 TB
Picks made on 5/30/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Marte mashes
The Arizona Diamondbacks, out of nowhere, have become one of my favorite teams to watch this season. And a big reason for that is because of the way this lineup has come together. While they may not have any huge superstars, they also don’t have many holes either.
That balance has benefited them. They rank in the Top 10 in scoring, batting average, and OPS, and they hardly ever strike out. And elder statesman Ketel Marte is still a big part of that. The D-backs second baseman, who has been with the team since 2017, is getting into one of his patented grooves at the dish.
Marte is hitting .348 with a .910 OPS over the last 11 games, and tonight he goes against a pitcher he is maybe more familiar with than any starter in baseball in Kyle Freeland of the Colorado Rockies.
Freeland is having a so-so season, pitching to a 4.13 expected ERA while surrendering a .261 expected batting average to opponents. The lefty has also never been much of a strikeout pitcher, and this season is no different. His 17.4 strikeout rate is in the 17th percentile in the MLB.
And if there is someone he isn’t looking forward to seeing tonight, it’s Marte. These NL West rivals have faced off a crazy 43 times, and it’s fair to say Marte has had Freeland’s number. Marte is 12-for-37 (.324) with five walks and six extra-base hits in his career vs. Freeland. That includes whacking a two-run dinger off Freeland when they last met on April 28.
Additionally, Marte has done a better job hitting from the right side this year with a .292 average and a .847 OPS. However, there isn’t much value on Marte’s total bases, so instead, let’s look at his hits + runs + RBIs.
This line is sitting at 2.5 tonight. He’s gone Over that in seven of the last 11 games, and with the matchup vs. Freeland and plus money to boot, this looks like a solid play tonight.
Ketel Marte prop: Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+115)
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marte Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs | +115 |
Sears gets skewered
JP Sears has actually been one of the Oakland A’s better pitchers this season, but that isn’t saying a whole lot. And unfortunately for him, he’ll be on the mound tonight when the A’s continue their road series with the Atlanta Braves, who absolutely mash southpaws.
“Better pitchers” for the A’s this season means that Sears owns a 4.67 expected ERA, and is allowing opponents to hit for a .249 expected batting average and a .468 expected slugging percentage. And that’s just not going to cut it against this Braves team.
The Braves love facing lefties. Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Sean Murphy have been particularly devastating vs. southpaws (Albies is hitting .452 vs. lefties, so the Over 1.5 on his total bases prop at +105 is also worth a look).
Atlanta leads the MLB in batting average, and is second in OPS and wRC+ when facing left-handed pitching this season, plating a whopping 6.64 runs per nine innings.
That all adds up to a short outing for Sears tonight. The lefty’s outs recorded prop is on the board at 17.5. This means he will need to complete six innings for the Over to cash. Sears is averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per start this season, and has landed below this number in six of his 10 starts.
I’m betting the Braves do what they do best in this one and get Sears yanked from this ball game before he gets through six innings of work.
JP Sears prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (-130)
No stopping Martinez momentum
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter J.D. Martinez continued his hitting streak to 13 games by swatting another dinger last night against the Washington Nationals. We are going to ride this Martinez money train until it goes off the rails.
After a bit of an up-and-down start to his first season in Dodger Blue, Martinez has looked much more like the guy who got selected to the MLB All-Star Game in four of the last seasons with the Boston Red Sox.
He is now hitting .276 with a .910 OPS and 11 home runs thanks to a 13-game hitting streak. Martinez is hitting .333 with a 1.058 OPS, which includes 10 extra-base hits over that stretch. Tonight, he’ll have a big experience advantage when he digs in against Nationals prospect Jake Irvin.
Irvin has made just five career starts and mostly uses a combination of a four-seam fastball, curveball, and sinker. Unfortunately, the fastball and sinker have been hit hard and often. The result has been a 6.51 expected ERA, and a .476 opponent expected slugging percentage.
He also has just one start that has lasted more than 4 2/3 innings. That means extended innings for a Nationals bullpen that ranks 22nd in ERA, 25th in WHIP, and 26th in opponent batting average.
Martinez is one of the most locked-in hitters in baseball right now. He’s got a great matchup, he’s gone Over 1.5 total bases in 10 of his last 11 games, and we are still getting better than plus money. All aboard the Martinez money train!
J.D. Martinez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
Not intended for use in MA.
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No stopping Martinez momentum
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter J.D. Martinez continued his hitting streak to 13 games by swatting another dinger last night against the Washington Nationals. We are going to ride this Martinez money train until it goes off the rails.
After a bit of an up-and-down start to his first season in Dodger Blue, Martinez has looked much more like the guy who got selected to the MLB All-Star Game in four of the last seasons with the Boston Red Sox.
He is now hitting .276 with a .910 OPS and 11 home runs thanks to a 13-game hitting streak. Martinez is hitting .333 with a 1.058 OPS, which includes 10 extra-base hits over that stretch. Tonight, he’ll have a big experience advantage when he digs in against Nationals prospect Jake Irvin.
Irvin has made just five career starts and mostly uses a combination of a four-seam fastball, curveball, and sinker. Unfortunately, the fastball and sinker have been hit hard and often. The result has been a 6.51 expected ERA, and a .476 opponent expected slugging percentage.
He also has just one start that has lasted more than 4 2/3 innings. That means extended innings for a Nationals bullpen that ranks 22nd in ERA, 25th in WHIP, and 26th in opponent batting average.
Martinez is one of the most locked-in hitters in baseball right now. He’s got a great matchup, he’s gone Over 1.5 total bases in 10 of his last 11 games, and we are still getting better than plus money. All aboard the Martinez money train!
J.D. Martinez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
