Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Syndergaard Stays Rolling

The MLB season is here and with it, all the glorious prop markets that come with it. We’re digging into today’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player props. 

We’re coming off a big 3-0 SU +3.4 unit day and looking to sweep the Saturday board. We’re pulling a 180 on fading the Reds, looking for some Ks from a Norse god, and looking for a single base from one of the best power-speed guys in the league.

MLB props for April 23

• Hudson Under 3.5 strikeouts (+100)
• Syndergaard Over 5.5 strikeouts (-135)
• Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 total bases (-130)

Picks made on 4/23/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

Cheaper by the Hudson

We’ve been cashing on starting pitchers’ strikeout props versus the Cincinnati Reds of late but today might be a good day to deviate from that successful strategy. Enter St. Louis' Dakota Hudson.

Hudson has started just 11 games since 2020 and hasn’t come out of the gates in his best form to begin 2022. He’s given up eight hits and seven runs over his seven innings of work (two starts), allowed two home runs, and is throwing just 54% of his pitches for strikes. He loaded the bases in the first inning of his last start and struck out just two of the 18 batters he faced. 

Hudson’s peripherals aren’t great either, especially when looking at his strikeout props. He sits in the bottom-three percentile in chase percentage and the bottom-third in wOBA, K rate, fastball spin (and velocity), barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage. There just isn’t a lot to like here from an Over 3.5 strikeouts perspective even with a good matchup.

Hudson likely won’t throw more than 80 pitches and shouldn’t see the order for the third time. Over his career, he’s a 6.6 K/9 pitcher and he’s struggling with location to begin the season. The St. Louis bullpen is rested and could be called into action if Hudson struggles again. The ballpark factor is also not in Hudson’s favor while the double-digit winds are blowing out to left field today.

Pick: Dakota Hudson Under 3.5 strikeouts (+100 at FanDuel)

Club Noah

Noah Syndergaard has looked great since returning to full health. He’s faced the Astros and Rangers to open the season and has given up just seven hits (two walks) and two runs over 11 1-3 innings. He is pitching into the third time through the order and threw 82 pitches in his last outing so 90 is a possibility today versus a weak Baltimore lineup.

The Orioles are striking out at 27% which is the highest mark in the AL. They are also arguably the worst offensive lineup in baseball right now with 30th ISO, 28th wOBA and the 25th batting average. Thor built on his first start and should be even stronger in his third outing versus a Baltimore lineup that has scored two or fewer runs in six of its last nine games. 

While his average sinker velocity is 94.6 mph, no batter has yet to record a hit against it with 45 sinkers thrown. Syndergaard is mixing his stuff up well with his change-up, sinker, 4-seamer, and slider all getting at least 15% of his pitches and although he has just five strikeouts, those numbers will improve as his chase rate and whiff rate are all in the upper-third percentile of the league. He has a very respectable 29% CSW percentage and should be able to miss some bats today while flirting with 18 total outs recorded. 

Syndergaard and the Angles are such big favorites and the books expect the Angels starter to go at least five innings that his “to record a win” prop is a juicy -250. The Orioles have not seen a parade of high-end pitchers of late and Thor looks to be getting better with every start. Weather conditions will also be in his favor. We’re also looking out for his total out prop and will pounce on the Over at 15.5 outs or less.

Pick: Noah Syndergaard Over 5.5 strikeouts (-135 at FanDuel)

Jazz hands

Miami’s Jazz Chisholm has found his way to the top of the Miami order thanks in part to a 1.014 OPS which should get the speed-power hitter a few more at-bats down the road. He went hitless last night as his team got shutout 3-0 but Jazz has not gone hitless in back-to-back games this season.

The youngster has 24 total bases across 34 at-bats and seven of his nine total hits have gone for extra bases including a pair of bombs and two triples. This kid can fly and with his total base prop sitting at 0.5 (-130 to the Over), we’re just asking for a single bag. 

Chisholm will also see a familiar opponent on the mound as he takes on Atlanta’s Ian Anderson, who he is 3-for-10 against lifetime. Anderson is dealing with some command issues and a spin rate on his fastball that is among the worst in the league. 

Anderson hasn’t been giving up many hits early in the season, but Chisholm could see five at-bats and has been crushing the ball of late. His speed is also a huge asset in getting just a single base as he ranks fifth in baseball in sprint speed. 

A promotion to the top of the order is a huge boost for Chisholm, and there is some value on his Over 0.5 total bases at -130 for a guy who could see five at-bats and has the skill set that he possesses. 

Pick: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 total bases (-130 at Caesars)

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