The summer is almost done but there is still a ton of value on the board in the MLB player props. With that said, I’m digging into every baseball market and hunting for winners. The new Covers player prop page is also a great tool for finding gems.
Today, I’m betting the Yankees’ offense keeps rolling, Oracle keeps suppressing runs, and an Arizona batter goes hitless for big plus money.
Here are our best MLB player prop picks for August 31:
MLB props for August 31
Picks made on 8/31/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Squeezing Sandoval
The Yankees got the bats rolling in Angel Stadium last night. They finished with seven runs on nine hits, which included three long balls. The park is not doing pitchers any favors and with high temps (95 degrees), low humidity, and wind blowing out, the visitors’ bats could be rolling again vs. Patrick Sandoval.
The L.A. starter owns a 3.05 ERA but a 4.13 xERA. He also has barrel and hard-hit percentages that are all near the league average, and he faces a New York lineup that crushes left-handed pitching — second in wRC+ and SLG%.
Sandoval may have reached the 18-out mark in back-to-back games, but in his previous five starts before that, he failed to hit the Over 17.5. Sandoval's 9-12 O/U on 17.5 outs this season and we're getting plus money on his Under 17.5 outs vs. a lineup that was once the best in baseball not long ago.
THE BAT has him projected for just 90 pitches and 15.22 total outs. I’m rolling with the Under and like the top of this New York order knocking the lefty out early.
Patrick Sandoval Prop: Under 17.5 total outs (+105 at DraftKings)
Kelly criterion
Arizona’s Carson Kelly is a career .227-hitting catcher who will likely hit leadoff tonight versus left-hander Tommy Henry. Kelly is a slight pinch-hit risk and sits in the bottom 16% of the league in sprint speed.
Henry is not projected to go deep today and the Arizona catcher could be seeing a right-handed reliever by his third at-bat. Kelly is hitting .219 vs. RHP this season.
Because of his projected lead-off spot, the books are pricing his Under 0.5 hits as long as +205, which is always worth the risk when we consider his career average, speed, and pinch-hit risk. He’s gone hitless in 38 of his 74 games (44%), and at +205, these angles always offer great value.
Carson Kelly Prop: Under 0.5 hits (+205 at bet365)
Oracle Joe
Oracle park is playing as the best pitcher-friendly park in baseball today thanks to low temperatures (58 degrees!) and high humidity (92%). It was already the best home-run-suppressing park in baseball and today’s environment is making it even harder to go yard.
Alex Wood has been getting rocked of late and I’m staying off his Over 17.5 outs but Joe Musgrove is paying plus money to pitch into seventh with an Over 18.5 total outs at +120.
Musgrove went seven innings, allowing just six hits and one run (solo homer) four starts ago vs. the Giants at Petco Park. Considering he's allowed a long ball in seven straight starts, Oracle should be the right-hander’s friend this afternoon.
Musgrove could also see a weaker San Francisco lineup thanks to a matinee match today following a late game last night.
The San Diego starter has a long leash and THE BAT projects him for 102 total pitches and over 19 total outs. At plus money, this is another +EV play on his Over 18.5 outs.
Joe Musgrove Prop: Over 18.5 total outs (+120 at bet365)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $127.56 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
