Happy Thursday and welcome to another edition of our favorite MLB player prop picks. In a mostly-full slate of games, there are plenty of appealing bets at the ready, but we've pinpointed three that stand above the rest.
We'll look at Atlanta Braves right-hander Kyle Wright to stand tall against the Washington Nationals in D.C.. Additionally, we're picking a pair of Joses to clear the Over in their total bases prop.
Let's get down to it with our three favorite MLB player prop picks for Thursday, July 14.
MLB props for July 14
Picks made on 7/14/2022 at 12:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Wright on the money
The long-awaited Kyle Wright breakout season has finally arrived and any major concerns about him regressing too severely may finally be quelled. Through 103 innings over 17 starts, Wright has posted a 10-4 record with a 2.97 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. And while his expected ERA is higher at 3.59, it's not such a disparity that a fall is looming.
And if it is, it's probably not happening tonight against the Washington Nationals for a couple of reasons. While yes, the Nats gave Wright some trouble in his last start, most of the damage against him came late. Wright allowed just one earned run over six strong innings, with a Juan Soto home run in the third being the lone blemish.
Even after a leadoff blast from Yadiel Hernandez in the seventh, Wright was able to regroup to record three straight ground-ball outs. The Braves trotted him out once more in the eighth only for him to get yanked after issuing a leadoff walk that ultimately led to a third earned run on the evening.
It's understandable why he was given such a long leash, however, as he finished the night with only 84 pitches thrown (a whopping 66 for strikes).
That kind of efficiency goes a long way and helps illustrate part of the reason why he's authored such a positive win-loss record. Wright has only failed to eclipse five innings — the threshold to qualify for a win as a starting pitcher — twice and has gone at least six frames 12 times, consistently putting himself in a position to win.
The Braves are -215 favorites, giving them an implied probability to win of over 68%. With Wright's propensity to go deep and pitch efficiently and effectively, taking him to be the deciding pitcher at plus money in lieu of the Braves moneyline is a wise play.
This is especially true when considering the opponent. Despite a couple of hiccups, Wright still came away victorious against Washington last time out and the Nationals are an ugly 30-60 on the season, including 2-7 vs. Atlanta. Add Thursday's projected starter, Anibal Sanchez, into the mix and it's even more attractive.
The veteran right-hander hasn't pitched in a major-league game since 2020 when he went 4-5 with a 6.62 ERA over 11 starts. He's been recovering from a neck injury and is getting thrown into the fire against baseball's seventh-best offense by wRC+. The Braves have hit the second most home runs in MLB this season and Sanchez was especially homer-prone when last he appeared, allowing 11 dingers over 53 innings.
With the Braves in a great position to jump out to an early lead against a rusty right-hander, Wright is the — ahem — right call to get the win.
Kyle Wright Prop: Record a win (+115 at DraftKings)
JoRamming speed
Jose Ramirez remains a dark horse to emerge as the AL MVP winner should frontrunners Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani hit the skids in the second half. And it's easy to see why. Ramirez is slashing .285/.366/.564 with 17 home runs and an AL-leading 30 doubles in 84 games.
Tonight, Ramirez squares off against rookie Detroit Tigers right-hander Elvin Rodriguez, who owns an unseemly 11.51 ERA over 20 1-3 innings and has already allowed nine home runs in such a short amount of time. Basically, Rodriguez is getting hit around the park, getting tagged for 19 hits in his last 8 2-3 innings.
Now, he silenced Cleveland over four innings back on May 29, holding Ramirez hitless over two plate appearances, but it would be foolish to put any weight into that small of a sample size, especially as a reason to fade Ramirez.
The switch-hitter is better from the left side, where he's batting .302 with 14 of his 17 homers on the season and that's where he'll line up tonight against the beleaguered rookie. Ramirez is third in the AL in total bases and leads the majors with 51 extra-base hits. Against the homer — and hit-prone righty, Ramirez should cruise past his total bases prop.
Jose Ramirez Prop: Record 2+ total bases (+105 at FanDuel)
Tuve with love
In his return to the majors, Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers looked like a much different pitcher after a month-long demotion to Triple-A. He blanked the Baltimore Orioles over six innings of work while allowing just two hits and punching out six. Well, despite Baltimore's recent winning ways, tonight's opponent is a completely different beast.
The Houston Astros rank second in the American League with 125 home runs and a wRC+ of 116. One of the primary culprits has been leadoff hitter Jose Altuve, especially when it comes against southpaws.
Altuve is batting .313 with seven home runs against left-handers this season. In fact, two-thirds of his hits vs. lefties have gone for extra bases. He's handled lefties his entire career, too, batting .324 over 1,773 plate appearances in 714 games. This is an established advantage at this point. Altuve's lone hit against Detmers is a solo home run, so that's not enough data to truly draw upon, but his overall prowess against lefty hurlers is pushing us in this direction.
Detmers was electric in his Triple-A start prior to being recalled, striking out 14 over six innings and seemingly harnessing his slider in the process, but his overall results at the big-league level haven't reflected the talent yet. His 8.5% walk rate has also limited his ability to go deep into games on the regular, which exposes Los Angeles' overworked and beaten-down bullpen to further damage.
With Altuve getting enough kicks at the can against a starter who hasn't translated his minor-league success into big-league gains with consistency, we like him to clear his total bases number tonight.
Jose Altuve Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at DraftKings)
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