Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Saturday's Written in the Stars

The MLB summer months are here and the player prop market is in full swing. As we get set for the All-Star break, we’re digging into today’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player props. 

Read on to find out about value in the betting favorite in AL MVP odds, hitting a low strikeout total for a Cy Young odds candidate, and hitting another pitching Over on a modest strikeout total in our MLB prop picks for Saturday, July 16.

MLB props for July 16

• Ohtani Over 0.5 runs scored (+150)
• Verlander Over 6.5 strikeouts (-125)
• Pineda Over 2.5 strikeouts (-120)

Picks made on 7/16/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

MVP bid v2.0

It’s not often hitters like Shohei Ohtani return value in their markets but today we’re seeing +EV on a few of his hitting props again. He’s currently the best stick in the L.A. lineup, and with Mike Trout probable to return, Ohtani will have a great chance to cash some Overs.

We’re getting Ohtani to score a run at +150 odds which is on the long side as the books haven't adjusted to Trout's possible return to the lineup. He’s scoring a run every 7.43 plate appearances, which is slightly worse than his career R/PA of 6.89. More runs could be coming and he might even be a better hitter this season than last year.

Is Shohei Ohtani even better this season? What is a “barrel” anyway?

These questions and more answered in the latest #ByTheNumbers presented by @MorongoCasino @Angels | #GoHalos | @EdWithSports pic.twitter.com/dNMaMA6ik6

— Bally Sports West (@BallySportWest) July 15, 2022

His ability to get a free pass is a very big factor in this play as he's getting on base at nearly a .400 clip over his last 30 days and has nine walks over his last 10 games. Ohtani can turn a walk into a poor man’s double with a free pass and a swipe of second base, as his stolen base attempts have risen since Joe Maddon got the ax. 

Ohtani could certainly go yard today too, as the winds are blowing out to center at Angel Stadium. It’s much easier to go long as a left-handed hitter with right-center field playing 370 feet compared to 390 feet in left-center field. Angel Stadium is the best home run park today, per Ballpark Pal. 

Julio Urias is coming off a rough outing that saw his ERA jump from 2.57 to 3.01, and although splits aren’t in his favor as a left-handed hitter, THE BAT X is projecting Ohtani for 0.73 runs versus the 0.41 projected runs the +150 odds imply. 

Shohei Ohtani Prop: Over 0.5 runs scored (+150 at bet365)

O-Verlander

Justin Verlander is a tight No. 2 betting favorite for the AL Cy Young, and that’s saying a lot with what Tampa’s Shane McClanahan has done in the first half. Verlander will be looking to head into the All-Star break with a sub-2.00 ERA — something he’s done over his last seven starts, which equates to a 5-1 record and a 1.97 ERA to go along with a 0.92 WHIP. 

His strikeout prop today versus one of the worst offenses in baseball is 6.5 and only juiced to -125 for the Over. That’s just one K per inning if he can go seven frames, which is something he’s accomplished in five of his last seven starts. He's getting a longer leash than the average pitcher and is averaging nearly seven more pitches per game than the league mean.

Most starts with 8+ innings pitched this season

1.) Sandy Alcantara: 9

*a whole lot of empty space*

2.) Aaron Nola (3)
2.) Logan Webb (3)
2.) Justin Verlander (3)
2.) Framber Valdez

— Danny Vietti (@DannyVietti) July 16, 2022

He’s been making bad teams look even worse as well as is coming off an eight-K performance versus the Royals. He faced this same Oakland team earlier in June on the road and dominated for seven innings, allowing just two hits. It wasn’t his best command night as he finished with just 95 pitches thrown and six punchouts.

This is one of the least intimidating lineups in baseball and one that Jose Urquidy struck out nine times over 6 1-3 innings last night. Oakland sits in the Top 10 in K% on the season and Verlander owns a better K% at home.

The righty’s K/9 is down to 8.54 this season which is well off his career numbers and projected total of 10.63, so there's still some room for Verlander to increase his strikeout numbers. 

The Houston starter could also get some help behind the plate today with Vic Carapaza, who grades out as a pitcher-friendly umpire. Minute Maid Park is also the second-best pitcher-friendly venue on the slate today.

THE BAT projects for over eight strikeouts today, so this total of 6.5 is still returning value on the juiced line.

Justin Verlander Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-125 at Draft Kings) 

Picking up Pineda

Veteran pitcher Michael Pineda will make his fourth start since mid-May and should see roughly 83 pitches on the low end of the projection today. In his last three starts, he’s recorded at least 15 outs, and although the K numbers aren’t through the roof, the righty has a good shot at topping his modest 2.5 total today.

Pineda will face a Cleveland team that he saw two starts ago. Pineda went five innings, allowed just five hits, and punched out two batters. His 57% strike rate in that start was well below his season rate of 65% and if Pineda can control the zone and go five innings like he has been doing, we should hit this Over 2.5 strikeouts, which is a pick ‘em at most books.

Cleveland is a low-strikeout team, but with Angel Hernandez behind the plate, anything is possible, and with a modest total of 2.5, if we can get one good call from the controversial ump, the Over has a great chance of hitting.  

Pineda’s Baseball Savant page isn't pretty, but it’s not often we get such low strikeout totals with pitchers who could certainly hit 90-plus pitches. His walk rate is elite so this is more of an opportunity vs. talent situation and THE BAT has him projected for Over 3.0 punchouts today.

Michael Pineda Prop: Over 2.5 strikeouts (-120 at bet365)

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