The 2021 MLB second half is underway, which means this prop train is back on the tracks after a brief hiatus. We find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day, doing all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to!
If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
We’re following a 2-1 day at the prop market with a trio of gems to close out the week. We’re zagging on the Rays and their striking out ways, looking for a former MVP to heat up and fading a battered lineup in primetime.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Sunday, July 18, 2021.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Drew Smyly Under 5.5 strikeouts (-105)
The Tampa Bay Rays are known as a free-swinging team. They lead the league in strikeouts and seem like an easy team to fade for opposing pitchers’ K props. But against left-handed pitching, these swings and misses aren’t the same.
On the year, Tampa has a 26.4 percent K rate, which is the second-highest in the league, but against LHP, that number drops to 22.6 percent — which is a league-average number. On Sunday they face Atlanta’s Drew Smyly, who owns a 7.81 K/9 and a 20.1 percent K rate. Smyly struggles to get deep into games — completing six innings in 33 percent of his starts — and at a rate of under one K per inning, hitting the Over on his 5.5 K prop is a tough task.
Smyly has topped 5.5 strikeouts just five times in 15 starts this year and with Tampa getting shutout 9-0 yesterday, the Rays may bring a more focused approach at the dish.
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases (-125)
Cody Bellinger has seen Colorado’s Jon Gray 18 times over the course of his career and in those 18 AB’s, the L.A. outfielder has collected an absurd 11 hits. He hasn’t taken Sunday’s starter long yet, but he owns a 1.682 OPS against the right-hander.
Now healthy and following the break, Bellinger should be in a better spot to push his batting average north of the Mendoza Line in the second half after posting a dismal .176 mark in the first half... and Jon Gray could be Bellinger’s slump buster.
Colorado is a perfect setting for a player’s total bases prop and because of Bellinger’s struggles, we are getting a great price on his Over 1.5 total bases (-125). The Dodgers’ offense has scored 19 runs over two games since returning from the break and hopefully, Bellinger can get the memo that hitting is contagious.
New York Yankees team total Under 4.5 (-105)
The Yankees lost yet another outfielder yesterday as Tim Locastro tore his ACL after making a fantastic catch in left field. That means the Yanks will have to make another move to fill the void as Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, and Clint Frazier were already sidelined. That is leaving the bottom of the New York lineup looking pretty weak these days: Brett Gardner, Chris Gittens, Tyler Wade, and Greg Allen — ouch.
New York faces the Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball and Boston will throw lefty Martin Perez on the mound. Perez has been dominant on the road this year and owns a 2.04 ERA over seven road starts. The Yankees did get to him for three runs on six hits in a June 26 start but all three runs were unearned.
He hasn’t pitched great against his AL East rivals, but this is a different Yankees’ squad and if Perez can minimize the damage from Giancarlo Stanton, who has had plenty of success against the lefty but has a .593 OPS over his last 15 games, Perez and the Boston bullpen should keep this frail lineup in check.
MLB betting card for July 18
- Drew Smyly Under 5.5 strikeouts (-105)
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases (-125)
- New York Yankees team total Under 4.5 (-115)
Picks made on 7/18/2021 at 7:43 a.m. ET
MLB parlays
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