It’s hard to tell what’s hotter: the MLB player market or the temperature outside. Either way, we’re digging into today’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player props.
We’re hitting a pitcher’s Under in a hot and humid Citizens Bank Park, fading an All-Star, and betting on one of the hardest places to pitch in baseball.
MLB props for July 22
- Steele Under 4.5 strikeouts (+120)
- Anderson Under 17.5 total outs (+125)
- Ashcraft Under 16.5 total outs (-115)
Picks made on 7/22/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Steele-ing an Under
Justin Steele will take his talents and his 1.41 WHIP on the road to Citizen’s Bank Park, where it will be warm with the winds (9 mph) blowing out to right. Steele got hit hard by the Orioles before the break and will now face a Phillies lineup that is still potent without Bryce Harper and can take advantage of the weather, which has increased home run potential by 35% today.
The 27-year-old left-hander lasted just 85 pitches in his last start, which was the ninth time in his 17 starts that he has been held to under 86 pitches. He also had just four swings and misses in that outing. He sits in the Bottom 25% in Whiff% and the Bottom 12% in chase rate.
He is predominantly a fastball/slider pitcher, and batters are hitting over .300 against his primary pitch — his fastball that sits in the low-90s. He’ll likely also have Wilson Contreras, who is a below-average framing catcher, behind the dish.
The Phillies are a Top 10 team in average vs. left-handed pitching and sit in the league's top half in strikeout percentage against southpaws. THE BAT has him projected for just 80 pitches in a tough environment and just over 4.00 strikeouts. His Under 4.5 strikeout market paying +120 implies roughly 5.25 strikeouts, making this a great +EV play.
Justin Steele Prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (+120 at bet365)
Third time’s a charm
Tyler Anderson will begin the second half with a matchup vs. the Giants, and his total outs prop is sitting at 17.5. Manager Dave Roberts always has a shorter leash with his backend starters, and although they played yesterday and used five relievers, this is still a great pen that is coming off plenty of rest.
Going through an opposing order a third time through is not common with the Dodgers’ end of the rotation. Although Anderson did make the All-Star game, he isn’t a strikeout-dominant pitcher and faces a Giants’ lineup that can hit for power and came out of the gates swinging last night with two home runs versus the Dodgers' bullpen.
Anderson relies on soft contact but isn’t a groundball pitcher with a GB% that is well below the league average, and Dodger Stadium has played well for home runs this season at +15%.
Anderson hasn’t thrown more than 88 pitches in 10 of his 15 starts, and THE BAT has him projected for just 86 today and 16 total outs.
We’re looking for the Giants to get a couple of runs via the long ball and force Roberts to make that early change. Anderson has gone through the order three times, just twice over his last nine starts. Opponents also have a near .800 OPS vs. Anderson in the third time through the order this season.
Tyler Anderson Prop: Under 17.5 total outs (+125 at DraftKings)
Betting on GABP
Great American Ballpark is one of the best home run parks in the league. With today’s temperatures expected in the mid-90s, humidity, and winds (9 mph) blowing out to the left field, it could be a rough go for Cincinnati starter Graham Ashcraft, who got lit up by the Cards in St. Louis last month.
The rookie right-hander recorded just 14 outs in that start and gave up nine hits, four runs, and struck out just two. Now, the setting at GABP will be against him. Over his last two home starts, he’s given up 18 hits and eight runs.
Nolan Arenado will be healthy after resting a bad back over the All-Star break, and he took Ashcraft long in the last meeting. Paul Goldschmidt is starting to run away with the NL MVP (-120), and this Cardinals’ club is very lethal at the dish with lots of pop. St. Louis totaled 18 total runs vs. the Reds right before the ASB in a two-game set.
We’re fading the rookie in a high-total game (10) with optimal hitting conditions. THE BAT has him projected for 85 total pitches and just over 15 outs recorded.
Graham Ashcraft Prop: Under 16.5 total outs (-115 at DraftKings)
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