The MLB summer months are at the front door and the player prop market is in full swing. We’re digging into today’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player props.
We’re fading a low-strikeout-rate pitcher in California, littering the stolen base market for the Jays, and beating the books at their own game with an Under total bases play.
MLB props for June 24
- Flexen Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
- To steal a base: various Blue Jays
- Alvarez Under 0.5 total bases (+125)
Picks made on 6/24/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Flexing on Flexen
Chris Flexen takes his talents on the road to Angel Stadium tonight, where the books have his strikeout total at 4.5 paying even money to the Under. It’s going to be a hot night at the diamond with temperatures in the high-80s and a slight wind blowing out to right-center field. Ball Park Pal projects it as the best home-run conditions of the day, which isn’t great news for the Seattle starter.
Flexen has a below-average 1.24 HR/9, and with his high flyball rate (46.6%), the environment will be playing against him which should help make this an abbreviated start for the low-strikeout pitcher.
The right-hander has a 6.47 K/9 and a K% of 16.6, which is on par with his BAT projections for the season. On the road, he has just 23 Ks over 37 innings for a 5.9 K/9. Opponents are hitting a crisp .271 versus Flexen.
This number might be more reflective of the Angels’ high strikeout rate, but with yesterday off and Mike Trout getting a full two days of rest, this should be a stout lineup. The Angels got to him for six hits and two runs over 5 1-3 innings in Flexen’s last start, which was the first game of a doubleheader and featured an easier Los Angeles lineup.
Chris Flexen prop pick: Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
Stolen base smorgasbord
Adrian Houser projects as one of the best pitchers today to steal against and we’re eyeing plenty of Toronto stolen base props as a result.
Over his last nine starts, base runners have attempted 12 swipes vs. the righty and have succeeded 10 times. They haven’t been speedsters either — as JT Realmuto stole a pair of bags vs. Houser three starts ago.
Stolen base props are mainly priced on the frequency of the offense, which gives bettors some +EV when we find a good stolen base pitcher vs. a team that doesn’t sit in the Top 10 in stolen bases — and that’s what we have tonight.
We can split up a unit and litter the longer odds today as the prices are certainly worth getting down on. DraftKings has four Toronto players available, and their odds are the longest of any book. Teoscar Hernandez (+1,200 at DraftKings; +950 at bet365), Raimel Tapai (+800), Santiago Espinal (+1,100 at DraftKings; +900 at bet365) and Bo Bichette (+900 at DraftKings; +850 at bet365).
All four of these batters are in the Top 5 in stolen bases for Toronto. At 0.25 units per, the longest play (Hernandez +1,200) would net +2.25 units while the shortest (Tapai +800) would net +1.25 units.
It’s always nice when we can line up our plays with Derek Carty and the BAT X release show.
Blue Jays prop pick: To steal a base: Teoscar Hernandez (+1,200) , Raimel Tapai (+800), Santiago Espinal (+1,100) and Bo Bichette (+900) all at DraftKings and 0.25 units per play.
Shedding Eddy
With the Mookie Betts injury, Dave Roberts has had to use career minor-leaguer Eddy Alvarez in right field, and now with the addition of Trayce Thompson, this is a full-on platoon situation. However, the books are pricing Alvarez’s prop markets as if he is going to get a full array of at-bats — and he likely won’t.
The BAT has him projected for under three plate appearances today and he’s been pinch hit for 70% of the time when starting against right-handed pitching. The platoon situation is legit and ultimately, Alvarez isn’t a good hitter to begin with.
He’s 3-for-19 on the season with six strikeouts and zero walks, and has played over 500 games in the minors compared to 47 games (120 at-bats) in the MLB. In the 11 games he’s swung a bat this season, he has zero hits in nine of them, yet somehow the books are giving us plus money for the Under 0.5 hits or total bases.
His defense isn't likely to get him more at-bats either.
An adventure in right field for Eddy Alvarez, who drops a routine fly ball. Losing Betts on offense is a blow, but replacing his defense might be the bigger issue.
— Juan Toribio (@juanctoribio) June 19, 2022
There are likely one or two days left before the books adjust this number because the pinch-hit risk is far too high to get these amazing odds on a poor hitter.
Eddy Alvarez prop pick: Under 0.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)
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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
