Today’s MLB Prop Picks: May The Fourth Be With Your Prop Bets

Thanks to a couple of doubleheaders, we have an absolutely loaded day on the diamond with a whopping 17 MLB games for baseball bettors to dive into. That means there is plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.

Which Yankee is the best bet to take advantage of a slumping Yusei Kikuchi? Not fading the Reds almost feels irresponsible at this point, and the Rockies must be licking their chops ahead of tonight’s matchup against lefty Patrick Corbin.

Find out in our MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, May 4, as we bank on some of baseball’s best (and worst) to do their thing.

MLB props for May 4

• LeMahieu Over 1.5 TB (+120)
• Peralta to record a win (+100)
• Grichuk Over 1.5 TB (-110)

Picks made on 5/4/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

D.J. turn it up

The New York Yankees are rolling, as they have now won 11 straight. Plenty of aspects have gone right for the Yanks, but no area deserves more credit than their hitting. New York now ranks fourth in batting average, second in OPS, and of course, first in home runs. 

And while guys like Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo are getting most of the headlines, D.J. LeMahieu has quietly gone about and put together a solid start to the campaign. He’ll look to keep swinging a hot stick when he and the Yankees go for a three-game sweep of the Blue Jays on Wednesday night.

LeMahieu has collected hits in 16 of his last 18 games, hitting .324 over that stretch, raising his overall average to .296.  However, this bet is part praise for LeMahieu and part fade of tonight’s opponent in Yusei Kikuchi.

Kikuchi has not gotten off to the start Toronto fans had hoped. The lefty has a solid fastball but has not been using it enough. He has also struggled with his control, issuing just as many walks (13) as strikeouts this season. As a result, Kikuchi owns an expected ERA of 5.98 while giving up a .282 expected batting average to opponents.

LeMahieu has also had success against Kikuchi over the course of his career, batting .455 with a double and three walks drawn.

Bet on LeMahieu to keep reading the ball well out of Kikuchi’s hand and take the Over on his total bases prop tonight.

Pick: D.J. LeMahieu Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at Caesars)

Peralta brings the heat

At this point, it feels irresponsible to not fade the Cincinnati Reds every day until they improve, or drastic adjustments by sportsbooks are made. 

After last night’s 6-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Reds are now just 3-20 for the season and their -68 run differential is the worst mark in MLB — by 27 runs. And just like yesterday, the best way to take advantage of this is by taking the Brewers’ starter, this time Freddy Peralta, to record a win on Wednesday night.

Peralta is the overlooked head of the Brewers’ three-headed starting-rotation monster but is coming off an excellent season where he pitched to an xERA of 2.74 and limited opponents to a very low .174 xBatting Average. 

Like Brandon Woodruff, Peralta has gotten off to a bit of a slow start this season with a 5.00 ERA, but his xERA is a respectable 3.93, and he still has a solid strikeout rate of 29.5%.

Now, he faces a Cincinnati team that ranks next-to-last when it comes to batting average versus right-handed pitching (.200) and 27th in OPS (.598). 

The Reds counter Woodruff with Vladimir Gutierrez, who has an xERA of 4.79 but is walking way too many batters and getting himself in trouble, resulting in a 1.97 WHIP. He also hasn’t pitched more than 4 2-3 innings this season and will have to hand the ball to a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA and WHIP.

The Reds are a gift from Gamblor and we shall reap the rewards until he sees fit to take it away. Bet on Peralta to record a win tonight.

Pick: Freddy Peralta to record a win (+100 at DraftKings)

Good luck against Grichuk

The Colorado Rockies’ bats still haven’t cooled off from their hot start. They lead MLB in batting average and OPS which has helped carry them to their 13-10 start.

But those Rockies bats have really feasted on southpaws, batting .330 against them as a team. The next closest club is the Chicago White Sox at .278. That’s the same difference between the White Sox and the 16th best team. Colorado also leads in OPS versus lefties at .867.

On Wednesday night, the Rockies get to face one of the worst southpaw starters going in baseball when they take on the Washington Nationals' Patrick Corbin.

Corbin has basically struggled ever since signing with the Nats a few offseasons ago and that has continued in 2022. He has an xERA of 5.62 while opponents have an xSlugging percentage of .494 over his first five starts. 

So, who is the best Rockie to back when it comes to taking advantage of this matchup? For me, it’s Randall Grichuk.

Grichuk has fit in well with his new team and is off to another one of his patented hot starts (keeping it up is always the question with him). The outfielder has recorded at least one hit in 15 of his last 17 games, hitting .349 with a .919 OPS over that stretch. 

But like many of his teammates, he is absolutely crushing lefties. Grichuk is hitting a ridiculous .579 with a 1.390 OPS when facing left-handed pitching this season and looks like a great bet to go Over his total bases prop tonight.

Pick: Randall Grichuk Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at FanDuel)

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