September is here, and with it, a ton of value in the MLB prop market with more eyes shifting to other sports. With that said, I’m digging into every baseball market and hunting for value. The new Covers player prop page is also a great new tool for finding gems.
With today's MLB player prop picks, I’m betting on a pair of pitchers that are unrestorable in fantasy but are projecting a ton of value while looking at multiple angles why Dylan Cease will go deep today.
MLB props for September 3
Picks made on 9/02/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
The probable Pineda
Michael Pineda might not be a sexy pick for an Over strikeout prop, but when we can get it at 2.5 and THE BAT is projecting over 3.5, I’m taking notice.
There are some question marks with Pineda here, however. He's making his first start since late July but has two minor league rehab starts under his belt. He threw 61 pitches in both those games and had 10 strikeouts over nine innings. He was efficient and his command was on. He likely could have gone deeper, but he finished up his five innings and that was it in his most recent go.
Pineda came back from another injury this season in early July and went five innings on 65 pitches while striking out three Kansas City batters. Coincidentally, the right-hander will face this weak roster again today.
The Royals and their “lineup” struck out at a 24% clip in August — good for seventh-highest in baseball. Drew Hutchinson finished with five punchouts last night versus them and only three other teams in baseball swung at a higher percentage of pitches in August than the visitors.
It’s not often we see K totals at 2.5 and Pineda’s leash is priced into this, but even at 65 pitches (THE BAT projects 76 pitches), this is more probable than the -110 line implies. The state of the Royals’ offense is the icing on the cake.
Michael Pineda Prop: Over 2.5 strikeouts (-110 at BetMGM)
Pigeonholed Patrick
Books and bettors are certainly not feeling the Nationals today vs. Max Scherzer and the Mets. New York was as short as -450 at opening but has started to move the other way.
One main reason for this one-sided price is Washington’s Patrick Corbin. He is perceived by quick-looking bettors as one of the worst starters in baseball but that is always priced in. We’re not getting discounts on his Unders.
However, because of this, there is sometimes value in his Overs, and today is one of those days.
His current total out market is sitting at 15.5 and paying +125 for the Over. He saw the Mets five starts ago with a closing total of 16.5. On average, over his last 10 starts, his total outs has closed at 16.2 and includes three games at 17.5 total outs.
This number has swung too far, considering the +125 price implies roughly 14.6 outs with THE BAT projecting 17.07 outs. That's nearly 2.5 total outs of value vs. projections.
Corbin has hit his outs Over in three straight games. The lefty needed just 86 pitches in his last start to get 18 outs and he's seen this lineup three times this year with one good, one bad, and an okay start, which was his first of the season.
He’s allowed just two runs in back-to-back starts but the real edge here is the pricing, which favors the Over in terms of value. There's no hiding what pitcher Corbin is but we might be seeing his lowest price in the market today thanks to one of the biggest one-sided moneylines of the season.
Patrick Corbin Prop: Over 15.5 outs (+125 at DraftKings)
Ceasing the moment
Dylan Cease’s path through the AL Cy Young odds has gotten a little easier with Justin Verlander and Shane McClanahan on the shelf. The No. 2 betting favorite could be in for a lengthier outing tonight versus the Twins, who the Sox are also chasing in the standings.
Chicago burned four relievers last night and three of them (all set-up men) are likely unavailable tonight. As such, new interim coach Miguel Cairo could be extending the leash for his starter today. Cease hit the 100-pitch mark for the first time in eight starts last time out and conservative Tony LaRussa can’t pull him now.
Cease has seen the Twins just once this season on the road and went eight shutout innings while allowing just a single hit.
In a massive game with a ton on the line and a new manager in his corner, everything is aligning here for Cease to get at least 18 outs and the tax isn’t even tough to swallow. He's the best healthy pitcher in the American League right now.
Dylan Cease Prop: Over 17.5 outs (-115 at DraftKings)
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