We've made it to the end of the week, and greeting us is an excellent slate of MLB baseball. With that comes a nice slate of value in the MLB prop market.
We're hitting an ace on the mound in New York to grab a win and targeting a Philly starter in the strikeout market. To finish things, we're headed out west to grab a player at a cheap price to record a hit.
Let's continue to cash some tickets as we review today's MLB odds for the best MLB player props on September 15.
MLB props for September 15
- Gerrit Cole to record a win
- Aaron Nola Over 5.5 strikeouts
- Ryan Noda to record a hit
Picks made on September 15 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Cole World
Today, Gerrit Cole takes the mound, and the hard-throwing righty is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career. I'm rolling with him to get his 13th win of the season, and he should get some help from the New York Yankees bats tonight.
Johan Oviedo takes the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates and he's been hit relatively hard this season. Oviedo's barrel and hard-hit rate are below the league average, but more pressing is the fact that he's given up too much contact this season.
That's more of an issue when you're a fastball first pitcher against the Yankees. He throws it nearly 40% of the time, and while this New York offense hasn't been prolific overall this season, it has hit the heaters well.
The Bronx Bombers enter this game with a potential lineup of up to five players with a run value over three against that particular pitch this season. Just like he has in his last four starts, give me a 6 to 7-inning performance from Cole tonight.
If that happens, I am highly confident that the Yankees will lead once he exits the game.
Gerrit Cole prop: Record a win (+117 at Caesars)
Prop bet #2: Nola-palooza
After exceeding this total for eight consecutive starts, Aaron Nola has been up-and-down in the strikeout market lately. Since then, he's surpassed this number in half of his last four.
Dating back to last season, the Philadelphia Phillies right-hander has faced the St. Louis Cardinals three times and he's gone Over this number in each start. That includes when he last saw them at the end of July and posted an impressive nine punchouts.
Throughout his career, Nola has been a chase-reliant pitcher. It's why he's able to post big K rates and big strikeout numbers — not exactly rocket science.
Against the Cardinals, he should generate a decent deal of chases. The Cards rank above the league average in chase rate at 29%. Lately, those numbers have increased a bit, and the Ks have followed. I don't expect another nine-strikeout performance here, but there's a nice edge.
I projected this number at 6.2, so I'm happily backing it at this number.
Aaron Nola prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-110)
Prop bet #3:
An Oakland Athletics player is quietly tied for the second-longest hit streak in the MLB. Ryan Noda has now gotten at least one hit in six straight games and in eight of his last 10 games.
I'm backing him to make it a seventh consecutive hit today.
Noda has a good matchup looming as San Diego Padres right-hander Seth Lugo opposes him on the mound, and the metrics haven't been kind to him. Lugo ranks in the Bottom 20% of baseball in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity. That's an extended way to say that batters routinely hit him hard.
What turns this matchup in Noda's favor is the pitches he's likely to see. Lugo has a complete arsenal of pitches but leans on the fastball and curveball the most.
Against the fastball? Noda rakes. He leads the A's in run value and hard-hit rate and has the second-highest batting average against it. I'm going to back the hot bat here.
Ryan Noda prop: Record a hit (-125)
Not intended for use in MA.
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