After ending the month of May on a hot streak, the Texas Rangers have dropped four of their last six games ahead of their game against the surging Los Angeles Dodgers on June 11.
This matchup should prove to be a captivating one between two pitchers who have their fair share of struggles this season but might offer some reasons for hope, which is why my Rangers vs. Dodgers predictions are backing the Under.
Read my MLB picks to get the low down on what should be an exciting pitcher's duel.
Rangers vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Under 9 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Looking at the last 14 days, it’s hard not to love the Los Angeles Dodgers here with their 133 wRC+ and excellent .201 Isolated Power. Hitting .269 with a walk rate on the rise and a strikeout rate sitting at an acceptable 20.5%, they look to be the stronger of the two offenses.
The issue here is Los Angeles loves to hit the ball in the air. That normally tends to work in Texas, but it doesn’t work against pitchers who love serving balls up in the air.
The Dodgers are hitting a poor .240 against fly ballers, and while Dane Dunning has pitched to a higher-than-usual .484 xSLG this year, he’s kept his xBA down at .256.
Behind him, too, is the third-best defense in the game by Outs Above Average, with the outfield having already produced three OAA this month to rank second in the game.
It’s also not as if Dunning doesn’t roll balls up on the ground, either — sitting around the league average in that regard — so there’s a feasible way he should be able to keep pitching to contact here.
On the flip side, the Texas Rangers rank just 23rd in wRC+ to LHP this year and 20th against all pitchers over the last two weeks. The main source of issues has come in the power department, and Paxton's xSLG is very reasonable at .426.
I think the stronger offense here will face a surprisingly effective arm, and on the other side of this matchup, Paxton should find some reprieve against the slumping Rangers, who should continue to have issues driving the ball, given the profiles we’ve laid out above. In turn, we get a little value in the total here.
Rangers vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9
Freddie Freeman 2+ total bases
Wyatt Langford to record a hit
The beauty of taking the Under is that if you mix in a couple of offensive props, even at unattractive prices, you’ll receive a nice odds boost for essentially pitting two bets against one another. With little reason to bet on either pitcher’s strikeout total, I’ll head to the offenses to build this parlay out.
The first guy I want to target is Freddie Freeman, who’s crushed ground-ball pitchers this season to the tune of a 1.026 OPS in 121 plate appearances — totaling 61 total bases along the way. Shohei Ohtani profiles similarly, but you’ll get a great discount if you opt for Freeman, and you'll be backing a red-hot bat hitting .321 since the calendar turned to June with six of nine hits going for extra bases.
Then, it’s time to bet on struggling rookie Wyatt Langford. The sample is small in an injury-shortened season which has seen him play just 41 games, but he’s been this team’s best fastball hitter by a longshot with a run value over four per 100 pitches, a .271 average, and .286 xBA. He’s also seemed to settle in this month with a .286/.310/.464 slash line in seven June games, and seems to be a great pick here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Dodgers odds
Rangers vs Dodgers live odds
Rangers vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-165) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: Texas +135 | Los Angeles -160
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) Under 9 (-115)
Rangers vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened up around -160 and currently sit at that same price on Tuesday afternoon, but action on the Rangers took the Dodgers down past -150 at one point during the betting window.
- The total has remained stagnant at nine runs with some ever-so-slight movement towards the Under.
- According to DraftKings, a commanding 92% of the bets have come in on the Dodgers, but just 61% of the money is headed that way.
- The Over has accounted for 55% of the tickets but makes up a stunning 89% of the handle.
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Rangers vs Dodgers trend
The Texas Rangers have hit the game total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+15.15 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Dodgers
Rangers vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest, SportsNet LA |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Dane Dunning (4-4, 4.09 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | James Paxton (5-1, 4.19 ERA) |
Rangers vs Dodgers latest injuries
Rangers vs Dodgers weather
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